An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week I became a Bad Bunny fan, and US inflation also hit a crowd-pleasing note, the S&P is down -1.1% and the Nasdaq is down -2.1% Europe was flat. The Nikkei was up 5.8% China was up 0.4%
• US Treasury yields fell across the curve as weak economic data bolstered expectations for Fed easing. The 2-year yield drifted toward 3.45%, while the 10-year traded around 4.16–4.22% before slipping toward 4.08%. The curve steepened as short-end rates priced-in cuts while longer maturities reflected a modest term premium amid lingering growth and fiscal uncertainty
• Brent crude prices softened and ended the week lower, reversing earlier strength on fears the US could take military action against Iran if nuclear talks collapsed, but gave back those gains after Trump signalled progress towards a deal, deflating the geopolitical risk premium. Adding to the downside pressure, a large US inventory build of 13.4mio barrels reinforced concerns over ample supply, while the IEA reiterated its view that global production will outpace demand this year. Brent crude is down 0.7% on the week to $67.62
• Precious metals showed marked volatility around the US non-farm payroll print, with the market repricing rate-cut expectations. Early in the week, bullion markets were bid as softer US data and a weaker dollar fuelled safe-haven demand, keeping gold above the $5’000/oz mark and silver supported in an $80-85 range. But the stronger-than-expected payrolls figure (130k jobs vs 68k expected) tempered Fed easing expectations, lifting the dollar and pushing gold and silver lower. Gold briefly dipped below key technical levels before bargain-hunting coupled with softer inflation supported a Friday rebound. Silver suffered a sharper drawdown given its higher beta nature. At the time of writing Gold trades at $5’004/oz and Silver at $78.75
• Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped early in the week as macro nerves and derivatives positioning weighed on sentiment, then found support into the end of the week. Bitcoin proved relatively resilient, holding its range better, while Ethereum underperformed as investors trimmed higher-beta exposure. Ethereum trades at $1’967, Bitcoin at $67’263

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Japanese equities surged early in the week after PM Takaichi's ruling coalition secured a historic supermajority (316 of 465 seats), the largest lower house win since 1945. With no elections for at least two years, the government has wide runway for tax relief, fiscal expansion, and potential constitutional reform
• The US House of Representatives voted to revoke Trump's tariffs on Canada, the move was largely symbolic given a near-certain presidential veto, but it was notable for the six Republicans who broke ranks, signalling cracks in party unity
• The 2026 Munich Security Conference has opened against a backdrop of strained transatlantic ties. With a record turnout of heads of state and senior officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the tone is expected to be more constructive than last year’s confrontational session, but substantive divisions remain on the role and burden-sharing within NATO as the old post-Cold War consensus erodes. European leaders, from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, are pushing for greater European responsibility within the alliance even as they call for repairing trust with Washington, and are advancing unprecedented defence initiatives like the EU’s SAFE procurement programme and joint Ukraine support packages

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US Nonfarm payrolls came in at 130’000 comfortably beating consensus and December's downwardly revised 48’000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The devil was in the detail; gains were concentrated almost entirely in healthcare and related roles, a segment largely insulated from broader economic cycles, underpinned by structural demand from an aging US population. Meanwhile, revisions of previous figures painted a softer picture of the labour market: the economy added roughly 1.68 million jobs across 2024 and 2025, nearly 900’000 fewer than was previously estimated
• US CPI for January came in softer than expected. Core CPI was in line at 0.3% monthly, with the annual rate falling to 2.5%,  its weakest since March 2021. Energy prices dropped 1.5%, shelter costs rose a modest 0.2% (well below recent trends), and food was up 0.2%. Markets took it as encouraging for Fed rate cuts, with Treasury yields moving lower and futures pricing improved odds of easing later this year
• UK fourth-quarter growth disappointed, with GDP rising just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 1.0% year-over-year,  both below consensus forecasts of 0.2% and 1.2%. The Office for National Statistics also revised third-quarter annual growth down to 1.2% from 1.3%. The softer-than-expected data strengthens the case for the Bank of England to ease policy at its March meeting

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Alphabet upsized a bond offering from USD 15bn to USD 20bn on Monday after attracting over USD 100bn in orders, part of a broader multi-currency fundraising drive to finance its accelerating AI investments. The company is also preparing a debut sterling issuance, reportedly including a rare 100-year ‘century bond’ alongside a Swiss franc sale. The move follows Oracle's USD 25bn deal in early February, which saw similarly strong demand. Large technology firms are increasingly turning to debt markets to bankroll their expanding AI infrastructure ambitions
• Robinhood posted a 27% revenue gain but missed expectations, as a 38% drop in crypto trading revenue offset strength elsewhere. EPS of $0.66 beat forecasts. The picture beyond crypto was robust: record equity and options volumes, margin balances more than doubling to $16.8bn, platform assets up 68% to $324bn, and premium subscription revenue jumping 56%. Prediction markets also gained traction
• Coinbase reported disappointing Q4 results, swinging to a net loss of about $667 million as trading volumes and transaction revenue fell sharply with the crypto market slump. Revenue for the quarter of roughly $1.78bn missed expectations, EPS of $0.66 also lagged. For the full year, revenue rose to $6.9 billion and CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted record Coinbase One subscriptions and doubled trading volume versus 2024, despite the fourth-quarter crypto weakness
• McDonald’s Q4 results beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $3.12 on $7.01bn revenue. Global same-store sales rose 5.7%, led by a 6.8% increase in the US., driven by a price-reduction strategy appealing to value-conscious consumers. CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized the chain’s focus on affordability, while McDonald’s also pursued menu innovation and bundled deals to boost visits and spending. Looking ahead, the company plans aggressive expansion, targeting 50’000 restaurants globally by 2027 despite challenges from higher commodity costs and price-sensitive customers
• Mattel shares fell after Q4 earnings and revenue missed. EPS of $0.39 came in well below the $0.54 consensus, while revenue of $1.77bn fell short of the $1.85bn expected. Gross margins contracted nearly 500 basis points to 46%, squeezed by heavier discounting, tariff costs, and currency headwinds. The US disappointed, where a hoped-for December spending surge failed to materialize as retailers managed inventory conservatively amid tariff uncertainty. Management guided for further earnings pressure in 2026 as it deploys $150 million in strategic investments ahead of a planned reacceleration in 2027
• EssilorLuxottica Q4 sales surged 18%, driven by strong demand for AI-equipped eyewear. Revenue hit EUR 7.6bn over the holiday period, comfortably beating analyst forecasts of just over 11% growth. The company sold more than 7 million pairs of smart glasses in 2025, with Ray-Ban Meta and Oakley models proving particularly popular. Shares rose
• Hermès Q4 sales rose 9.8%, exceeding expectations on the back of robust demand for Birkin bags and solid performance across all markets. Hermès has weathered the luxury sector slowdown better than rivals such as LVMH, leaning on the exclusivity and scarcity of its products. All divisions beat forecasts except perfume and beauty, where sales fell 14.6%. The company raised prices by 5–6% in 2026, and its stock has held steady year-to-date following an 8.6% decline in 2025
• Holtec International is preparing one of the largest nuclear-related IPOs in years, potentially valuing the company at over $10bn. The Florida-based firm, which makes equipment for storing nuclear waste and decommissioning plants, is now adding a new line of business: building and potentially operating its own reactors, starting with the Palisades plant in Michigan. State and federal authorities have asked Holtec to reopen the reactor to provide carbon-free power, while the company seeks approval for small modular reactors at the site. The move underscores growing policy and market support for nuclear energy as part of the broader clean-energy transition

Chart of the Week

Follow the Money

In a recent paper, Bridgewater Associates estimate AI infrastructure spending will add 140-150 basis points to US GDP growth over the next two years, but here's what makes this different: it's creating an unprecedented economic pattern where strong growth bypasses the labour market entirely. The illustration below shows why AI infrastructure creates such unusual economic dynamics.

The good news: roughly 70% of every dollar spent on data center buildout flows through to US GDP, a solid multiplier. The puzzle: where that money actually goes. Of the $42bn needed to build one gigawatt of capacity, the largest chunk ($28.7bn) goes to chips and IT equipment. These expenditures do boost GDP, but primarily through corporate profits, rather than wages or domestic employment. Components associated with large economic multiplier effects (high recycling) like construction,  represent only $6.2bn. The result is something historically rare: healthy GDP growth driven largely by capital spending and corporate profits rather than labour income.

You'd be right to note that capitalism routinely rewards capital over labour, we've seen profit-led cycles before. What makes this AI cycle distinct is its speed: capital spending converts to GDP and corporate profits almost instantly, barely touching employment. Previous investment booms (manufacturing, infrastructure) eventually hired workers who spent wages that created secondary employment.

This creates an unusual policy trap where the Fed's traditional playbook, easing to support softening employment, could backfire spectacularly. Rate cuts won't boost hiring (AI spending is rate-insensitive, dixit Fed Chair Powel) but will fuel asset speculation. Yet holding rates high crushes labour-intensive sectors that actually employ people.

Damned if you do, dammed if you don’t…