Weekly Notes: 02.03-06.03

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An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

 

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

  • In the week defined by a sudden and dramatic escalation in the Middle East. The S&P is down -1.9% and the Nasdaq is down -0.6% Europe was down -6.8%. The Nikkei was down -5.5%, China’s mainland market was down –1.1%
  • 10Y US Treasury yields rose for four consecutive sessions to 4.1848% on Friday, the highest level in a month, as inflation concerns intensified amid the escalating conflict with Iran. The global bond sell-off continued as energy prices resumed their climb after a brief reprieve mid-week, with traders worried that prolonged disruptions to oil and natural gas supplies could fuel an inflationary spiral. This is a notable reversal from last week's 3.97% close for the US 10Y and runs contrary to the classical safe-haven playbook, in which geopolitical stress typically drives yields lower. The bond market is instead pricing an energy-driven inflation premium, with markets now pricing in just one 25bps Fed cut for 2026, down from two earlier in the week
  • Brent crude Oil prices surged at the start of the week as the war entered its fourth day, with investors fearing that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to a significant energy supply disruption. President Trump’s pledge that the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz offered temporary relief, but Brent prices resumed their climb on Friday following the comments of Qatar’s energy minister saying production in Qatar would not restart until a complete cessation of hostilities, his comment sent oil above $94 , up close to 30% on the week its largest weekly gain since 2022
  • The gas market shock was even more dramatic and carries greater consequences for Europe specifically. QatarEnergy halted LNG production at its North Field facilities on Monday following Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial City, removing the output of the world's single largest LNG supplier. The Dutch TTF benchmark is up approximately 68% on the week, reaching above €60 per MWh at its highest point. The transmission into European wholesale electricity prices has been direct and immediate, with Germany's front-month power contract up approximately 31%, Italy's up around 20%, and the UK up nearly 20%. The vulnerability is compounded by the fact that European gas storage was already depleted as we near the end of winter. Goldman Sachs warned that a month-long disruption to Hormuz flows could drive TTF toward €74 per MWh, the parallels with 2022 are not lost on markets
  • Gold had a volatile week, reaching a high of $5’419 in early trading Monday before retreating sharply. Bullion pulled back as crude oil surged, driving renewed concerns about inflation and leading traders to anticipate ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Gold trades at approximately $5’087 at the time of writing, down 3.6% on the week , but the character of the move has shifted: gold and bonds are no longer moving together as classic safe havens, with the oil shock introducing an inflationary undercurrent

 

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

  • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.4 for February, continuing its recent expansion, while the ISM Services PMI showed the sector expanding at the fastest pace since mid-2022. The Manufacturing Prices Paid subindex surged to 70.5, its highest level since the post-pandemic peak of 2022, driven by steel, aluminum, and tariff pass-through costs, a figure that, combined with an oil shock, places the Fed's rate path firmly on hold. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92’000 last month, adding to stocks’ downward momentum. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.4%
  • Eurozone Flash CPI for February came in slightly above expectations, with the headline rising to 1.9% against a consensus of 1.7%. Core rebounded to 2.4% from January's multi-year low of 2.2%, driven by services re-accelerating to 3.4% and non-energy industrial goods picking up,  a reminder that the ECB's last mile on inflation remains incomplete. The broader eurozone picture was otherwise constructive: the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in January, down from 6.2% in December and 6.3% a year ago, while Q4 GDP was confirmed at +0.3% QoQ in line with the prior estimate. The data points to an economy that was finding its footing before this week's energy shock, the sustainability of that recovery is now very much in question given the gas price moves described above
  • China's National People's Congress set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5%, down from 5% and the lowest since 1991, in an explicit acknowledgement that the era of maximising headline growth is giving way to a focus on quality and sustainability. The budget deficit is set at 9.5% of GDP, a 0.5 percentage point increase versus 2025 but notably more restrained than last year's 1.3 point expansion, a signal of deliberate fiscal discipline rather than stimulus acceleration. The composition of that budget is telling: consumer support measures are not expanded despite earlier pledges, with the spending mix tilted instead toward innovation investment and modest increases in policy-bank lending. The message from Beijing is one of managed deceleration, accepting slower growth as the price for a more durable economic model
  • Brazil's economy grew 2.3% in 2025, its weakest full-year expansion since the pandemic, with Q4 GDP up just 0.1% quarter on quarter. The central bank is expected to deliver its first rate cut since May 2024 at its next meeting

 

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

  • Broadcom delivered record first quarter results, with revenue of $19.3bn growing 29% year-on-year. AI semiconductor revenue surged 106% to $8.4bn, driven by robust demand for custom AI accelerators and networking, above the company's own prior forecast. Q2 revenue is guided to approximately $22bn, representing 47% year-on-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately 68% of revenue. CEO Hock Tan stated that Broadcom has line of sight to AI chip revenue in excess of $100 billion in 2027, the company expanding its custom XPU customer base to six major clients including Google, Meta, Anthropic and OpenAI
  • CrowdStrike posted a Q4 beat with EPS of $1.12 versus $1.10 expected, revenue of $1.31bn against a $1.30bn consensus. Full-year guidance of $5.87–5.93bn in revenue was broadly in line with expectations. CEO George Kurtz said that AI does not eliminate the need for security but intensifies it,  a view the company is backing with three recent acquisitions targeting emerging AI-specific vulnerabilities
  • Apple unveiled the iPhone 17e, its new entry-level smartphone, alongside a faster iPad Air. Pre-orders opened on March 4, with starting prices of $599 for the iPhone 17e and the iPad Air 11-inch, and $799 for the 13-inch model. Apple also has new MacBook models and a foldable iPhone slated for later in the year
  • New Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel initiated the company's first share buyback in years. Abel said he consulted Buffett on both valuation and timing before proceeding. Buffett historically preferred deploying cash into external equity positions; Abel's approach suggests a willingness to return capital when intrinsic value justifies it. Berkshire's Class B shares rose 2.7% on the news
  • BlackRock TCP Capital wiped out the full value of a $25 million loan just three months after it had been carried at par, reviving concerns about valuation opacity in the private credit market. The write-down, disclosed in an SEC filing on February 27, follows last month's redemption halt at Blue Owl Capital. The broader private credit market is estimated to exceed $3 trillion, much of it held across BDCs, interval funds and alternative asset manager vehicles that have proliferated over the past decade with limited secondary market liquidity. Whether these markdowns prove isolated or represent an early stress signal for the asset class is one of the key questions investors will be watching into Q2

 

  • Anthropic found itself at the centre of a political firestorm this week after President Trump ordered federal agencies to phase out the company's AI technology within six months, following a dispute over its use in defence applications. The Pentagon had sought broad access to Claude for military purposes; Anthropic pushed back, requesting contractual safeguards against deployment in mass surveillance and autonomous weapons systems. Trump responded by labelling Anthropic a risk to national security. The situation is complicated by reports that Anthropic's technology is nonetheless being actively used in the ongoing Iran operation, and the two sides are said to be in discussions to find a workable resolution. The episode raises a question the industry has so far largely avoided confronting directly: at what point does an AI company's ethical positioning become a commercial and regulatory liability.
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