An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• Houston, we have a valuation problem. Despite solid results, SpaceX’s report suggested that investors may have priced in too much future growth, turning the company’s ambitious AI spending into a valuation problem.
• In the week marked by sharp market reactions to Japan’s symbolic intervention efforts, backed by the US, to support the yen through the euro-yen cross, the S&P500 gained +3.32% and the Nasdaq increased +4.84%. Europe rose +2.78%, the Nikkei surged +2.78% and China’s mainland market soared +2.91%.
• At the start of the week, the US 10Y Treasury yield fell sharply to 4.596% following President Trump’s comments that negotiations with Iran could resume. However, market sentiment reversed later in the week after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that « now is the time » for policymakers to begin raising interest rates. His hawkish remarks, together with renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, pushed the 10Y Treasury yield higher, peaking at 4.686%. The yield ultimately ended the week slightly lower at 4.65%.
• As markets priced in a potential easing of US – Iran tensions amid reports that Iran and Oman were working on an interim agreement to facilitate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices fell sharply, reaching a low of around $78.00 per barrel. However, prices later rebounded, with Brent closing the week at approximately $83.00 per barrel after Iran’s draft proposal proved more restrictive than markets had anticipated.
• Copper hit a record high on Thursday, briefly climbing to around $6.90 per pound. The rally appears to reflect a combination of constrained supply, robust investment in power grids, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and rising demand for electrification.
• In contrast with last week, when Bitcoin ended on a downward trend, the cryptocurrency rebounded, gaining +2.35% to roughly $64’900.

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The week opened with mixed signals from Tehran and Washington. After calling off planned strikes on Iran, the US said a new round of talks, framed as a “last chance” effort to end the conflict, was expected to begin shortly. Tehran continued to reject direct talks with Washington, while confirming it remained in discussions with Oman on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Despite reports of explosions near tankers off Yemen and Oman, and Houthi claims of a strike on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, Iran and Oman said midweek they were close to a temporary shipping arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz. The draft would involve no fees or tolls and would cover inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic on a route closer to Oman. Hopes of easier US–Iran tensions were tempered by reports that US and Israeli vessels would be barred, with similar restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran until compensation is paid. Iran also reportedly plans penalties of up to 20% of cargo value for vessels in breach of the draft rules.
• Speculation that the US was running short of long-range precision missiles was quickly dismissed by Washington. President Trump later acknowledged that some munitions were in “tighter” supply, while saying less sophisticated weapons remained available in virtually unlimited quantities.
• In the Ukraine–Russia conflict, Ukrainian forces struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, which processes around 15 million tons of crude a year, a hit that reinforces energy-infrastructure risk and the war’s transmission into global oil markets.

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• A week after the Fed held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, debate over the next move continued. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson argued policy was already restrictive enough to keep inflation on track toward target, while Fed Governor Cook said she would support a hike if inflation data failed to improve.
• As expected, the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark rate at 5.25% for a fifth straight meeting, citing still-moderate core inflation excluding precious metals.
• To meet regulatory requirements, the Indian government will sell up to a 6.5% stake in state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India at a 10% discount to Monday’s closing price.

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• HSBC quarterly pre-tax profit exceeded expectations, reaching $10.1bn versus the expected $9.51bn, boosted by stronger growth in banking net interest income and other higher fees.
• Despite AMD beating quarterly expectations, with revenue up 50% YoY on the back of strong Data Center growth, the stock quickly pulled back as investors grew increasingly concerned about the sustainability of AI spending.
• Despite a nearly 18% YoY decline, SoftBank’s quarterly net profit exceeded expectations, driven by a ¥1.3tn gain on its Intel stake.
• Citadel posted strong gains across its major hedge funds in July. The firm’s multi-strategy Wellington fund delivered its best monthly performance since 2022, returning 5.9% during the month.
• Saudi Aramco and BP reported blowout quarterly profits, just one day after Trump accused US oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron of « making too much money » from elevated fossil fuel prices amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran.
• Despite strong first-half sales and profit growth, Rheinmetall cut its 2026 guidance after a major German government warship procurement project, in which the company was expected to act as the lead contractor, was cancelled earlier this year.
• Palantir beat quarterly earnings expectations, reported commercial revenue that more than doubled from a year earlier and raised its full-year revenue outlook. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.41, surpassing consensus by $0.06, while revenue rose to $1.94bn versus the expected $1.80bn.
• AstraZeneca is reportedly in talks over a potential mega-merger with Bristol Myers Squibb in a deal that could value the combined company at roughly $400bn, making it one of the largest pharmaceutical mergers ever.
• Burger King posted strong quarterly growth in both domestic and international markets, with US same-store sales up 8.5%. By contrast, rival McDonald’s reported mixed quarterly results after US sales growth came in below expectations, rising just 0.8%. The company appointed a new US president to help accelerate sales growth.
• Meta was ordered to pay $567m into an abatement fund in New Mexico as part of a public nuisance lawsuit. The company’s social media platforms were accused of playing a significant role in the state’s ongoing youth mental health crisis.
• Alibaba unveiled its latest AI model, Qwen3.8-Max, which is set to launch next week. The company said it will be one of the most powerful models in its Qwen family to date.
• The European Union introduced new enforcement measures under the AI Act, giving regulators expanded powers to inspect AI models, limit access to the EU market and fine model providers.
• Castlelake has abandoned its plans to acquire EasyJet, clearing the way for rival bidder Apollo Global Management. Apollo is now expected to acquire the UK low-cost carrier in a transaction valuing the airline at roughly $7.7bn.
• Volkswagen has confirmed plans to cut up to 100’000 jobs, double the figure previously announced, as the automaker seeks to offset a sharp decline in profits, driven by surging tariff-related costs and intensifying competition from Chinese car manufacturers.

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 09.08: China Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 11.08: US Existing Home Sales (Jul)
• 12.08: US Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY (Jul)
• 13.08: UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ & YoY Prel (Q2), UK GDP MoM (Jun), US PPI MoM (Jul)
• 14.08: US Retail Sales MoM (Jul), US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Aug)

Earnings

10.08-14.08

• 10.08: Sumitomo Metal Mining, Rocket Lab Corporation
• 11.08: CoreWeave
• 12.08: Cisco Systems
• 13.08: Applied Materials

Chart of the Week

Spain’s moment?

The past month has been marked by a brutal sell-off in chip stocks, reviving investor interest in some more traditional markets.

As investors increasingly seek to reduce their exposure to AI-related stocks, Spain appears to be a strong candidate, having emerged as an AI hedge play.

For the second consecutive year, the IBEX 35, Spain’s benchmark index, has outperformed both US markets and most of its European peers. The index has gained 15% so far this year, compared with a 10% rise for the Europe-wide Stoxx 600.

Several factors explain the IBEX 35’s outperformance.

First, the index has significant exposure to bank stocks, making it increasingly attractive amid the current loss of confidence in tech firms’ ability to sustain the spending required to support AI development. European lenders have consequently become a popular choice for investors seeking to reduce their reliance on AI stocks. The IBEX 35 stands out as a particularly attractive option, as Spain is home to Santander and BBVA, the EU’s two largest lenders by market value.

Second, Repsol has been the IBEX 35’s best-performing stock this year, rising more than 60%, and appears to have further upside potential. The company has seen its outlook supported by higher energy prices triggered by the US – Iran conflict and could also benefit from efforts to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry.

Finally, Spain’s economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of external price shocks. The country’s electricity market is less dependent on natural gas for price setting, while GDP growth is forecast at 2.1% this year, compared with 0.9% for the Eurozone as a whole.

Source: The Financial Times, LSEG via markets.ft.com