An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week when peace and war traded places daily, the S&P 500 is up 2.3% and the Nasdaq is up 4.3%. Europe was up 1.0%. The Nikkei was up 5.4% (traded THU and FRI only) and China's mainland market was up 1.3% (index only open WED-FRI)
• On Thursday, the Nikkei 225 re-opened after a day pause and surpassed 63'000 for the first time, with the broader Asia regional rally driven by peace deal optimism and AI-related earnings momentum. The index climbed more than 5% to close at 62,833.84. The strong performance was led by gains in nonferrous metals, technology, and semiconductor stocks. SoftBank shares surged 18.44%, marking their best day since 2020, while Advantest and Tokyo Electron also advanced sharply
• The US 10Y yield began the week by rising more than 6 basis points to 4.442%, as investors assessed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. On Tuesday, the US 10Y yield edged slightly lower to 4.426%. Wednesday marked a decisive turning point, with Treasury yields falling sharply after the suspension of 'Project Freedom' and comments from Pres. Trump 'Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran'. The US 10Y yield dropped by more than 6 basis points to 4.354%.Yields moved higher again on Thursday, with the US 10Y yield climbing to 4.386%, after Pres. Trump threatened to bomb Iran if Tehran failed to agree to a peace deal. On Friday, following the release of US nonfarm payrolls and April's unemployment rate, the US 10Y yield fell again to 4.346%, before progressively resuming its upward trend
• Brent Crude prices started the week higher after the UAE announced on Monday that it had intercepted Iranian missiles for the first time since the start of the ceasefire. The news pushed Brent crude up 5.8% to sabove $114 per barrel. Midweek, Brent fell back below the $100 level after reports the US believed it was close to securing a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. Although prices rebounded above $101, Brent ended the week down 7%
• Gold extended its gains through Thursday and Friday, reaching $4,740 per ounce and touching an intraday high of $4,762 before that level held as technical resistance. Meanwhile, silver surged across the same two sessions to $81+, its highest level since April 17
• Despite US-Iran clashes, Pres. Trump's statement that the ceasefire was still in effect caused the dollar to edge lower on Friday. Earlier in the week, the dollar index notably hit 97.623, its lowest level since February 27. In parallel, intervention risk from Tokyo continued to support the yen, which ended the week roughly unchanged but on a steady footing at 156.85
• Bitcoin ended the week up 2.4% at $79'929 Ethereum was little changed at $2'297

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The week saw renewed ceasefire tensions throughout. The UAE reported Iranian missile and drone strikes on its territory for the first time since the ceasefire began. Iran separately accused the US of killing civilians in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the US military destroyed six Iranian small boats after Iran launched missiles and drones at US Navy ships and commercial vessels. Tehran denied the incident. A CMA CGM container ship attempting a US-backed crossing was attacked the following day, underscoring persistent risks despite de-escalation hopes
• On Thursday, a Chinese oil tanker was struck by Iran in the Strait, the first such incident against a Chinese vessel since the conflict began. Meanwhile, a Maersk vessel, the Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged ship, successfully transited the Strait under US military escort, as did a second CMA CGM container ship. The US military separately neutralised an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to break the blockade of Iranian ports
• On Monday, the US launched Project Freedom, a military initiative to assist commercial vessels in exiting the Strait of Hormuz under US escort. South Korea began reviewing participation after the HMM Namu suffered an explosion in the Strait. Iran warned that any US military approach to the Strait constituted a ceasefire violation and carried out attacks on US vessels as a warning. By Wednesday, Pres. Trump suspended the operation, citing major military success and progress toward a peace agreement. Following the suspension, Iran formalised a toll mechanism for Strait passage, establishing a centralised transit authority for the chokepoint
• On the diplomatic front, after Iran submitted a proposal to Washington via Pakistani intermediaries, the US issued its response. Iran urged the US to scale back excessive demands, particularly on the nuclear file. Pres. Trump estimated the conflict could last another two to three weeks, while Sec. Rubio stated the offensive phase had ended and a defensive phase was beginning. On Wednesday, the US submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and establishing a framework for nuclear negotiations. Pres. Trump subsequently threatened to bomb Iran if no deal was reached. In a signal of US willingness to de-escalate, the USS Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, departed the Red Sea and transited the Suez Canal heading home to Virginia, reducing US firepower. Overnight US strikes on Thursday, the first  since the ceasefire began, briefly shook confidence, but Pres. Trump's confirmation that the ceasefire remained in effect sustained optimism
• On the Lebanon-Israel front, the Lebanese President stated that a security agreement should precede any meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister. Later in the week, a new round of talks was announced, scheduled for May 14 and 15 in Washington
• Following the UAE's departure from OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and five other members agreed to raise June output quotas by 188'000 barrels per day. The move is largely symbolic: no member can currently meet existing quotas while the Strait remains blocked
• As part of the French and UK initiative to ensure navigation security in the Strait once the conflict ends, the Charles de Gaulle has been pre-positioned in the Gulf region to ensure rapid operational readiness once the situation stabilises

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US April nonfarm payrolls rose 115'000, more than double the consensus of 55'000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. March was revised up to 185'000. A resilient print, though the trend remains one of gradual cooling
• US Consumer Sentiment fell to 48.2 in the preliminary May reading, below the consensus of 49.5 and comparable to the June 2022 trough. The current conditions index dropped to 47.8, driven by surging gasoline prices. Expectations edged up slightly to 48.5 from 48.1. Year-ahead inflation expectations remain elevated at 4.5%
• The RBA raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote, its third consecutive hike, matching the prior cycle peak last seen in early 2024. The board revised its headline inflation forecast up to 4.8% for the June quarter, from a prior estimate of 4.2%, and signalled a possible further hike toward a 4.7% terminal rate by December 2026. Australian CPI rose 4.6% YoY in March, its highest reading since 2023
• Norges Bank unexpectedly raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, becoming the first European central bank to tighten since the start of the conflict. Sweden's Riksbank held at 1.75%, citing a wait-and-see approach on the Middle East's economic spillover
• Pres. Trump set a July 4 deadline for the EU to ratify the trade agreement, threatening significantly higher tariffs on failure to comply, including a 25% tariff on cars and trucks already announced. Ursula Von der Leyen confirmed the EU remains committed to the deal
• The ECB president warned against Europe's fossil fuel dependence, noting the bloc imports roughly 60% of its energy, mostly hydrocarbons, and called for development of alternative sources on grounds of security, sustainability, and affordability
• The US trade deficit widened to $60.3bn in March, up 4.4% from February but slightly better than the $60.9bn MarketWatch estimate. ISM Services PMI came in at 53.6 in April, marginally below expectations. JOLTS job openings dipped to 6.87m in March, just above consensus
• Australia announced it will reserve 20% of LNG production for domestic consumption, a move likely to add upward pressure to already elevated global LNG prices
• The UAE is in discussions with the US to establish a currency swap agreement to access dollar liquidity from the Fed, aimed at supporting economic stability during the conflict
• The Asian Development Bank unveiled a $70bn plan for new energy and digital infrastructure across Asia-Pacific, with Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines as the primary beneficiaries

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Palantir delivered its fastest revenue growth since going public: Q1 revenue rose 85% YoY to $1.63bn, beating the $1.54bn consensus. US revenue crossed 100% growth for the first time. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 beat estimates. The firm raised full-year guidance to $7.65bn-$7.66bn, from prior guidance of $7.182bn-$7.198bn
• Cloudflare beat Q1 estimates on both revenue (+34% YoY to $639.8m) and EPS (25 cents vs 23 cents expected), but announced a 20% workforce reduction affecting 1'100 employees. The company attributed the cuts directly to agentic AI adoption, citing a 600% increase in internal AI usage over the past three months. Shares fell 18% in after-hours trading on Thursday and a further 24% on Friday
• ARM posted record Q4 FY2026 revenue of $1.49bn, up 20% YoY, beating the $1.47bn consensus. EPS of $0.60 topped estimates by 2 cents. Licensing revenue rose 29% to $819m; royalty revenue grew a more modest 11% to $671m, weighed by smartphone weakness. The real story: CEO Rene Haas said AGI CPU demand doubled to over $20bn in six weeks, but Arm has only secured supply for the first $1bn. Shares fell around 10% as soft Q1 FY2027 guidance of $1.26bn-$1.31bn in revenue disappointed a market trading at 130x earnings
• Coinbase missed Q1 expectations as the crypto price slump weighed on spot trading. Transaction revenue came in at $755.8m (vs $805.2m expected) and subscription revenue at $583.5m ($35.8m below estimates). Derivatives trading volume rose 169% YoY

• Shell reported Q1 adjusted earnings of $6.9bn, up 24% YoY, well above the $6.36bn consensus. Revenue was broadly flat at $69.7bn. The company expects gas production to fall at least 30% next quarter due to the conflict. Cash flow was constrained by an $11.2bn working capital outflow driven by commodity price volatility. Shares fell 6.8% on the week
• Maersk maintained its 2026 forecasts despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a decline in net profit, while exploring slow steaming to reduce fuel costs. Engie confirmed its 2026 outlook on strong operational performance.
• Emirates reported a 3% rise in annual net profit to $5.7bn despite the conflict, with freight operations offsetting constrained passenger capacity.

• Novo Nordisk beat quarterly revenue and profit expectations. Wegovy continues to drive strong results. However, Eli Lilly's oral obesity pill received FDA approval in early April, ending Novo Nordisk's position as the sole player in the oral GLP-1 market in the US. Novo Nordisk shares are down nearly 40% over the past 12 months, against an 18% gain for Eli Lilly
• Pfizer beat Q1 adjusted EPS estimates ($0.75 vs $0.72) and revenue ($14.5bn, $0.66bn ahead of consensus). Full-year guidance was reaffirmed at $59.5bn-$62.5bn revenue and $2.80-$3.00 adjusted EPS

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 11.05: Chinese CPI (APR)
• 12.05:US CPI (APR), German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (MAY)
• 13.05: US PPI (APR)
• 14.05: UK GDP (MAR), UK,US Retail Sales (APR)

Earnings

11.05-15.05

• 11.05: Barrick, Petrobras, Constellation Energy Corporation, Softbank Corp.
• 12.05: JD.com, Siemens Energy AG, ADNOC Gas, 
• 13.05: Alibaba, Cisco Systems, Tencent,  Siemens AG, 
• 14.05: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation

Chart of the Week

Glass 88% full

The chart below from BNY tracks the percentage of S&P 500 industries where analysts have revised their 12-month forward earnings estimates higher compared to a year ago. It is essentially a measure of how broad the earnings optimism is across the market.

When the line is high (say 80-90%), nearly every industry is seeing upward earnings revisions, meaning the profit outlook is improving almost universally. When it drops (as it did dramatically in 2020), only a small fraction of industries are seeing positive revisions, reflecting a widespread deterioration in earnings expectations.

As of April 2026, the reading is 88.1%, close to the highs of the entire series. This means that across almost all S&P 500 industries, analysts are revising earnings estimates upward relative to a year ago. The chart labels three recent reference points: a local peak of 85.1% in December 2024, a trough of 70.1% in June 2025 (likely reflecting the initial shock of the Iran conflict and oil price spike weighing on consumer and industrial estimates), and the current recovery to 88.1%.

Despite the geopolitical risk, rising oil prices, and consumer sentiment at multi-year lows, corporate earnings breadth is near historic highs. The bottom-up profit picture is arguably stronger than the top-down macro picture, which is exactly the tension markets have been navigating since the start of the Middle East conflict

Source: Factset Data, BNY Wealth