An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week IEA warned that global oil demand was on track for its first annual decline since 2020, the S&P gained +0.9% and the Nasdaq rose +1.1%. In contrast, Europe declined -2.3%, the Nikkei fell -2.0% and China’s mainland market dropped -1.2%
• The US 10Y Treasury yield moved higher at the start of the week, opening at around 4.48% and initially finding support from a narrower-than-expected US trade deficit. The rally gathered pace after President Trump suggested that the ceasefire with Iran had ended, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Although the US 10Y Treasury yield reached 4.59% by midweek, the trend reversed on Thursday following reports that the US would continue diplomatic talks with Iran. The US 10Y Treasury yield ultimately ended the week at 4.55%
• Brent crude began the week at around $72.10 per barrel, close to pre-conflict levels. However, prices surged to as high as $80.59 as renewed exchanges of fire between the US and Iran, combined with comments suggesting that the ceasefire could be short-lived, heightened geopolitical concerns. Prices have since retreated from their midweek highs, with Brent trading at $76.47 per barrel on Friday, leaving it on track for a weekly gain of around +5.8%
• Gold ended the week down -1.7% at $4’106.3 per ounce, while silver declined -4.6% to $59.84 per ounce
• Bitcoin advanced after Donald Trump reaffirmed his support for cryptocurrencies, saying he had become a « big crypto guy ». Bitcoin ended the week up +2.5%, closing at around $63’960.84

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Escalating US-Iran tensions fueled concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following a series of tanker attacks, the US revoked authorization for Iranian oil sales and carried out strikes against Iran. President Trump initially declared that the ceasefire was « over », while exchanges of fire between Washington and Tehran continued throughout the week. However, as Qatar and Pakistan intensified diplomatic efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table, the week ended with reports that the US would engage in « technical talks » with Iran
• Over the week, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply as security concerns intensified, with just 13 tankers crossing midweek, down from an average of 33 per day the previous week. Nevertheless, oil producers continued to support supply: the UAE raised crude output to near-record levels above 3.8m barrels per day in June, while OPEC+ agreed to further increase output targets by 188’000 barrels per day from August, following similar increases in June and July
• The NATO summit opened with the Trump administration increasing pressure on allies to raise defense spending. President Trump called on European countries to take greater responsibility for their own security, renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland and warned that Washington could reduce its military presence in Europe. He also criticized Spain for insufficient defense spending. Despite renewed tensions with Iran, the summit concluded without any new NATO commitments to support the US in the Middle East
• The Russia – Ukraine conflict intensified. Trump reportedly held separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy, while Ukraine struck a Russian oil terminal and port, prompting Moscow to launch its second large-scale attack on Kyiv

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• Minutes from the June FOMC meeting revealed a divided Federal Reserve, with policymakers expressing different views on the appropriate path for interest rates as they await further evidence on the inflation outlook
• Federal Reserve Governor Christophe Waller reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, while highlighting both the advantages and drawbacks of forward guidance. He noted that « in some cases, it’s best not to use it at all »
• ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said the euro area’s economic outlook remains fragile, arguing that monetary policy decisions should be assessed against a range of scenarios given the significant structural  shifts in the global economy
• Germany plans to borrow more than €800bn by 2030, marking a historic departure from decades of fiscal restraint to finance a major increase in defense spending. Berlin expects to exceed NATO’s 2% of GDP spending target this year and reach its new goal of 3.5% of GDP in core military spending by 2029, six years ahead of schedule
• China’s consumer inflation rose less than expected in June, while producer prices continued to strengthen. The CPI increased 1% YoY, below expectations of 1.1%, whereas the PPI climbed 4.1% YoY, in line with forecasts and marking its strongest increase since July 2022
• The International Monetary Fund expects China’s economy to outperform global growth this year, raising its growth forecast for the country to 4.6% from 4.4%,. At the same time, the IMF downgraded its global growth projection to a modest 3%
• Canada unveiled plans to begin construction of a 1’000km pipeline to British Columbia by 2027, as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategy to establish the country as an « energy superpower » and diversify crude oil exports toward Asian markets, reducing dependence on the US

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• EasyJet’s shares surged 13% after the airline announced that it was considering a $7.7bn takeover proposal from Apollo Global Management. The announcement followed an initial rise in the stock price on Monday, after the budget carrier agreed in principle to a $7.3bn takeover offer from Castlelake. EasyJet is now reassessing its options as it evaluates the competing bids
• Stablecoin issuer Circle rose more than 7% after securing approval to operate as a trust bank. The charter allows the company to manage the reserves backing its regulated stablecoins directly. It also places Circle under the oversight of a national banking regulator
• As part of its ongoing cost-cutting efforts amid the AI investment boom, Microsoft announced an immediate reduction of 2.1% of its workforce. Around 20% of employees in the Xbox division are expected to be affected, as the gaming business has faced declining revenue recently
• Amazon plans to raise at least $25bn through an eight-tranche bond offering to fund its expanding AI infrastructure investments. The company reportedly doesn’t intend to issue additional debt this year. Amazon expects 2026 capex to reach $200bn, up from $131bn in 2025, with CEO Andy Jassy describing AI as a « once-in-a-lifetime opportunity » that justifies aggressive investment
• Samsung Electronics shares dropped 7% despite record preliminary second-quarter earnings, as investors questioned whether AI infrastructure spending can continue supporting elevated memory-chip prices. Revenue rose to 171tn won, compared with 133.9tn won in Q1, more than doubling from a year earlier
• Anthropic signed a 20-year lease for capacity at a TeraWulf data center in Kentucky, with initial power delivery expected in the second half of 2027. The agreement is projected to generate roughly $19bn in revenue over its initial term. Separately, Alibaba said it will prohibit employees from using Anthropic’s AI tools for work from July 10, citing potential backdoor security risks. Similar concerns have also been raised by Chinese authorities, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology describing vulnerabilities linked to Claude Code as a « serious threat »
• Shares of AstraZeneca fell as much as 9%, putting the stock on track for its worst day since March 2020, after a late-stage clinical trial for a heart disease drug failed to meet its primary endpoint. The setback is particularly notable given management’s previous confidence and the company’s strong track record of successful late-stage trials
• Sky agreed to acquire ITV’s television business for £1.6bn, combining the UK’s two largest commercial broadcasters. The transaction would leave Comcast, which acquired Sky in 2018, in control of a broadcaster reaching around 21m households

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 14.07: Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jul), Australia NAB Business Confidence (Jun), China Balance of Trade (Jun), China Exports & Imports YoY (Jun), US Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY (Jun), US Inflation Rate YoY & MoM (Jun), Fed Chair Warsh Testimony
• 15.07: China GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2), China Industrial Production YoY (Jun), China Retail Sales YoY (Jun), US PPI MoM (Jun), Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
• 16.07: UK GDP MoM (May), US Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
• 17.07: US Building Permits Prel (Jun), US Housing Starts (Jun), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Jul)

Chart of the Week

Long-term discipline is the key to portfolio resilience

The main message highlighted by this chart is the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies rather than attempting to profit from short-term opportunities.

Despite facing numerous external chocks, such as recessions, wars, inflationary periods and market corrections, the historical performance of the S&P 500 demonstrates that its long-term trajectory has consistently been upward. To succeed in an uncertain geopolitical environment, investors need to remain disciplined, stay invested and maintain a long-term perspective.

Investors attempting to capture short-term market trends may expose themselves to greater risks and potentially experience larger losses compared to those who remain invested in the S&P 500, which has historically demonstrated resilience in the face of short-term market fluctuations.

This graph highlights that wealth creation requires a long-term mindset. Since market setbacks are inevitable, investors should remain patient, disciplined and invested rather than attempting to time every market rise and fall in the hope of maximizing returns. Historically, staying invested has proven to be a more reliable strategy for achieving long-term financial growth.

Source: BNY Wealth