An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week in which SpaceX defied gravity, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.7%, Europe added 1.5%, the Nikkei fell -0.9% and China's mainland market was down -0.8%.
• The US 10Y Treasury yield ended the week 4bps lower at 4.48%, masking a volatile ride. Yields held steady through midweek as markets digested inflation data, then fell sharply after Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, citing a 'settlement' pending finalisation. Iran's state-run Mehr News Agency reported the outline of a draft 14-point memorandum of understanding between the two sides. Details remain sparse. Markets chose to believe it anyway
• Oil swung wildly. A 5% Monday spike on fresh Israel-Iran exchanges unwound almost entirely by week's end as ceasefire talk took hold. Spot Brent finished down 6% at $87.42.
• Gold fell to a six-month low on Thursday, hit by Middle East volatility, rising US rate hike expectations and the gravitational pull of the SpaceX IPO drawing capital toward risk assets. Gold dropped to $4'024 per ounce, but it recovered some of its losses back to $4'217 limiting its weekly drop to 2.6% 
• The dollar ended flat at 99.77. The euro traded near a one-week high at $1.1580 following the ECB's first rate hike in three years. Dollar/yen held above 160, keeping markets attentive to the BoJ's intervention threshold

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The week began amid renewed Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran targeting Israel for the first time since the ceasefire came into effect, following an Israeli strike in southern Beirut. Trump pressed Netanyahu to stand down, arguing a diplomatic agreement remained within reach
• Tehran called off its military operations against Israel on Monday afternoon, warning that any further Israeli strikes in Lebanon would trigger a stronger response, and reaffirmed its commitment to negotiations with Washington
• The fragile calm didn't last. Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, both crew were rescued safely, prompting US retaliatory strikes and Iranian drone and missile attacks on bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. The UN warned of a return to full-scale conflict. Iran's military announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Signs of progress emerged on Thursday when Trump cancelled planned strikes, citing a 'very good agreement' approved by Iran's Supreme Leader. Iranian state media reported a draft memorandum covering the lifting of oil sanctions, reopening of the Strait within 30 days, a permanent halt to hostilities in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian assets during a 60-day nuclear negotiation period
• On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed a fourth consecutive monthly production increase of 188'000 bpd from July, matching June's hike and moderating from the 206'000 bpd increases of April and May. The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stockpile and grant inspectors full access

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• The ECB raised rates 25bp to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023, and revised its projections to reflect the war's impact: headline inflation now seen at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, while GDP growth was cut to 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028
• US headline CPI rose 4.2% YoY in May, its highest since April 2023, driven almost entirely by energy. Core CPI came in at 2.9% YoY, in line with expectations. PPI surprised to the upside, rising 1.1% MoM against a 0.7% consensus, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.5%. Core PPI was slightly softer than expected at 0.4% MoM
• The Fed's consumer survey showed little change in inflation expectations but a deterioration in sentiment: the share of respondents saying their situation was "much worse" than a year ago rose to 13.3%, its highest since July 2022
• UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April, driven by a 0.2% decline in services, in line with expectations and following growth of 0.3% in March and 0.4% in February
• China's PPI rose 3.9% YoY in May, its strongest reading since July 2022 and above the 3.8% consensus. Exports surged 19.4% YoY in dollar terms, well above the 15% forecast, with shipments to the US up 35.4%, the fastest pace since March 2021
• The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, the weakest since the pandemic, downgrading projections for more than two thirds of economies versus its January estimates

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on Friday at $135 per share, raising $75bn in the largest IPO in history. The offering was three times oversubscribed despite a valuation of 92 times last year's revenues. Morningstar had estimated fair value at $63 per share, warning of a major disconnect between market expectations and underlying fundamentals. On its first day of trading the stock opened at $150, having touched $168 shortly after the open. At the time of writing it remains volatile
• OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO, with a current valuation above $850bn and a potential listing as early as Q4
• Oracle beat on Q4 earnings and revenue, wEPS of $2.11 against a $1.96 consensus and revenue of $19.2bn versus $19.1bn expected. Shares fell around 8% anyway, as investors focused on negative annual free cash flow of $23.7bn and plans to raise a further $40bn in FY2027, including a $20bn equity issuance, to fund AI infrastructure expansion

• ChatGPT reached 1bn monthly app users in May, becoming the fastest application in history to hit the milestone, roughly 3.5 years after its November 2022 launch
• Amazon has committed billions to Corning for optical fibre connecting US data centre infrastructure, with the deal expected to create 1,000 jobs in North Carolina.
• Marvell Technology jumped more than 10% in premarket trading after announcing its inclusion in the S&P 500 effective June 22

• Zealand Pharma fell as much as 23% after side-effect concerns emerged from new data on its experimental weight-loss drug. The stock is now down nearly 50% YTD
• GSK agreed to acquire Nuvalent for $10.6bn, its second-largest deal to date, to strengthen its lung cancer pipeline. The two lead assets could generate around $823m in annual revenue by FY2029

• IATA warned that surging jet fuel costs driven by the Iran conflict could cut global airline profitability in half.

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 16.06: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, RBA Interest Rate Decision, China Industrial Production YoY (MAY), China Retail Sales YoY (MAY), EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (JUN)
• 17.06: Fed Interest Rate Decision, US Retail Sales MoM (MAY)
• 18.06: BoE Interest Rate Decision, UK Unemployment Rate (APR)
• 19.06: Japan Inflation Rate YoY (MAY)

Chart of the Week

The Fit is Tight? Go up a size!

The 2-year yield is the bond market's best guess at where the Fed funds rate will average over the next two years. When it runs ahead of the actual policy rate, as it did in late 2021 and early 2022, it is not a prediction so much as a demand: tighten, or we will do it for you by pushing up borrowing costs across the economy anyway.

The gap is opening again now. The 2-year is back above 4%, trading above the effective Fed funds rate of 3.625%, and the divergence is widening. Warsh inherits a committee that has been on hold for months, an inflation print at 4.2%, and a bond market that is increasingly impatient. The June meeting is almost certainly a hold. But the 2-year is already writing the script for what comes next.

The parallel with 2022 is imperfect. That shock was supply-driven and global. This one is energy-driven and geopolitically contingent: a Hormuz deal could take 100 basis points of inflation pressure off the table almost overnight. But until that deal is signed, the chart argues that the Fed is behind the curve, and markets know it.

Source: Bloomberg