An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week a CNBC TV set resembled a Marvel Superhero convention, the S&P500 gained +0.37% and the Nasdaq increased +0.06%. Europe rose +0.24%, the Nikkei surged +4.74% and China’s mainland market decreased -0.61%
• The US 10Y Treasury yield opened the week higher, at around 4.735%, and remained broadly unchanged following the release of July consumer inflation data, which came in line with expectations. Later in the week, a softer-than-expected July wholesale inflation reading prompted the 10Y yield to ease to 4.615%. The yield subsequently rebounded, ending the week on an upward trend at 4.68%
• As prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to fade, oil prices rose sharply, with Brent crude reaching a high of $90.07 per barrel. A glimmer of hopes emerged on Thursday, when the Energy Secretary stated that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz were higher than many independent estimates had suggested. Brent crude subsequently fell sharply to $85.88 per barrel. Optimism, however, proved short-lived, as oil prices quickly stabilized following renewed US threats against Iran. Brent crude ended the week at $87.83 per barrel
• This week, the impact of US and Japanese intervention on USDJPY continued to fade, with the yen heading for its largest weekly decline in around a month, it closes the week just below 160

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The week began with hopes of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but optimism quickly faded as US – Iran tensions remained unresolved. On Sunday, Pres. Trump said the US was only ‘semi-negotiating’ with Iran, while Tehran insisted that lifting the US naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian funds held overseas were prerequisites for fully reopening the strait
• On Monday, Pres. Trump claimed that the US Navy had cleared mines from the strait and had 100% control of the waterway, declaring it open. Meanwhile, Iran continued to maintain that the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and would reopen only if its conditions were met
• The prospects for a return to normal shipping deteriorated further following two incidents at sea. Houthi rebels attacks resulted in casualties aboard a cargo ship in the Red Sea, these were the first reported fatalities in attacks on Red Sea shipping in more than a year. Hours later, US forces said they had fired missiles at a container ship allegedly attempting to breach the US blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman
• The week ended against a tense backdrop, after the US declared that its naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue indefinitely
• On the Ukraine – Russia front, a heavy Ukrainian drone assault targeting warships and major Russian grain export terminals prompted Russia to warn of potential disruptions to global food supplies

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US July CPI rose 0.1% from June, bringing the annual rate down to 3.4%, from 3.5%. The figure was in line with expectations. Retail sales, however, unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the July producer price index was unchanged MoM, below expectations for a 0.2% increase
• Buoyed by stronger activity in AI-related sectors and exports, Singapore more than doubled the lower end of its 2026 GDP growth forecast, now projecting growth of 4.5% – 5.5%, up from 2% – 4% previously
• To encourage the digitalisation of financial markets and to protect the dominance of London in global bullion trading, UK regulators are preparing a framework for tokenized gold
• In Japan, PPI eased slightly to 7.2% YoY in July, below expectations of 7.4%

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• This week marked a potential turning point in AI infrastructure financing, with Nvidia partnering with six asset managers to mobilize more than $500bn in third-party capital for data centers and Nvidia hardware. Jensen Huang announced the partnership on CNBC, appearing alongside the top executives of six Wall Street firms, Goldman Sachs, KKR, Blackstone, Blackrock, Brookfield and Apollo
• Intel unveiled a $20bn common stock offering to capitalize on surging demand for AI computing. The proceeds are expected to support general corporate purposes, including capex and working capital
• Anthropic investors bet on $2tn or more valuation in record IPO expected to happen in October
• Riot Platforms signed a $9bn, 20Y compute agreement with Anthropic, under which 191MW of capacity at Riot’s Rockdale facility will be leased to Anthropic. The deal is expected to generate $9.1bn in revenue over its term, highlighting the growing value of scarce, grid-connected power for AI workloads
• TSMC reported a 45% YoY increase in July revenue to $14.5bn. The company now expects full-year revenue growth of slightly above 40% in US dollar terms and raised its 2026 capex guidance to $60n – $64bn
• Cisco reported better-than-expected adjusted EPS and revenue. The networking company also unveiled a revenue forecast that sailed past estimates. In fiscal 2027, Cisco’s revenue is expected to reach $7.5bn, almost double the $4bn figure in the past fiscal year
• CoreWeave reported better-than-expected results, with adjusted EPS at a loss of $1.03 versus $1.20 expected. Revenue more than doubled, rising 112% YoY during the quarter
• Amid booming data center adoption, Super Micro Computer expects full-year revenue of $65bn – $72bn, above the $52.2bn expected. Quarterly gross margins came in at 17.5%, ahead of Super Micro’s preliminary estimate of 15% – 17%. In parallel, quarterly revenue nearly doubled to $11.12bn but came in slightly lower than the $11.55bn estimated
• Tencent’s quarterly revenue exceeded market expectations, but core profit fell short of forecasts, while higher capex underscored the company’s continued investment push

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 17.08: Japan GDP (Q2 Prel.), China Industrial Production YoY (Jul), China Retail Sales YoY (Jul), Canada Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 18.08: UK Unemployment Rate (Jun), German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug), US Building Permits Prel (Jul), US Housing Starts (Jul)
• 19.08: US FOMC Minutes, UK Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
• 21.08: Japan Inflation Rate YoY (Jul), UK Retail Sales MoM (Jul), German and UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug)

Earnings

• 17.08: BHP
• 18.08: Home Depot
• 19.08: Analog Devices
• 20.08: Walmart

Chart of the Week

VIX vs Geopolitics

While recent geopolitical developments point to renewed US – Iran tensions, the Vix is telling a different story.

The Vix fell below 15 this week, well below its long-term average and back to levels last seen before the US – Iran war began.

The chart highlights an important distinction between uncertainty and volatility. The Vix tends to spike when a new shock hits, as investors rush to hedge against a wider range of potential outcomes. But volatility doesn’t necessarily remain elevated as uncertainty persists. Once investors adapt to the new environment and incorporate the initial shock into asset prices, volatility can quickly recede.

The sharp decline in the VIX following its initial spike at the onset of the US-Iran conflict suggests that markets have largely absorbed the initial shock, allowing volatility to fall even as the conflict remains unresolved. The low VIX level may also reflect investors increasingly pricing in a relatively benign scenario, such as a contained conflict or eventual de-escalation, and selling volatility as they judge the cost of protection too high relative to the underlying risk.

Source: The Financial Times, LSEG