An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week a resolution to end the war received 50% of the votes in the US Congress, the S&P 500 is up 0.30% and the Nasdaq is flat. Europe is down 2.70%. The Nikkei was down 3.33% and China's mainland market was down 0.40%
• South Korea's Kospi opened at a fresh record high on Monday and closed the session at a new all-time peak, surpassing the 7'800 level for a fifth consecutive day of gains. The index climbed 4.32% to finish at 7'822.24, after reaching an intraday high of 7'899.32, driven largely by strong advances in semiconductor stocks. However, the Kospi ended the week retreating from the 8'000 milestone reached earlier in the week, surrendering gains to fall more than 6% Friday
• The US 10Y yield began the week at 4.41% on an upward trend as hopes for an imminent US - Iran peace deal continued to fade. On Tuesday, the yield advanced further, reaching as high as 4.475% after US CPI rose to its highest level in nearly three years. Midweek, hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data for April pushed the benchmark yield even higher, rising to 4.49%, its highest level since July 17. On Thursday, the 10Y yield was little changed at 4.481% after US import and export prices for April exceeded expectations and hit their highest levels since 2022. The benchmark yield ended the week up 19 basis points at 4.58% on Friday, as Kevin Warsh was set to take over the Fed on the same day. Meanwhile, the 30Y Treasury yield surged 13 basis points to 5.12%, its highest level since July 2007
• UK borrowing costs surged to their highest level since 2008 on Tuesday as calls for Starmer's resignation intensified following his failed speech after the Labor Party's disappointing performance in last week's local elections. By 11.15 a.m., the UK 10Y yield had jumped to 5.101%. The gilt yields ended the week even higher at 5.18% as Keir Starmer faced a challenge to his leadership from Andy Burnham
• After Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and following the US President's statement that China had agreed to purchase oil from the US during the China - US summit, Brent crude futures for July rose 2.30% on Friday to reach $108.09 a barrel
• Gold and silver markets came under pressure on Friday as inflation concerns intensified. Gold fell 2.75% to $4’525 per ounce, while silver dropped almost 9% to $76.15 per ounce
• The US dollar index rose by around 0.4% on Friday, supported by renewed inflation concerns following the release of key US inflation data earlier in the week

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• While last week was marked by alternating hopes of peace and renewed fears of war, this week opened on a more pessimistic note, with tensions escalating once again. Over the weekend, Tehran warned the UK and France of possible reprisals should they deploy forces in the Strait of Hormuz. France responded by stating that it had never considered a military operation in the strategic chokepoint, but rather a security initiative. In addition, the US rejected another peace proposal from Tehran due to persistent disagreements over the nuclear issue
• After the U.S. rejected Iran’s peace proposal, Tehran called for an end to regional conflicts, particularly in Lebanon, alongside the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and the release of frozen Iranian assets. Donald Trump responded by warning that the ceasefire with Iran was in critical condition, prompting Iran to threaten reprisals and possible escalation of uranium enrichment to 90% (weapons‑grade) if attacked. By the end of the week, however, Iran said Washington was willing to resume negotiations, even as it expressed skepticism about US intentions. A modest sign of easing tensions came on Friday when Iranian state TV announced that an increasing number of vessels had been allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, after reporting that over 30 ships had passed through the strategic chokepoint in a 24‑hour period the previous day
• The US Congress narrowly rejected a resolution aimed at ending the war between the US and Iran. The proposal received 212 votes in favor, including support from three Republicans, and 212 votes against. Although the vote ended in a perfect tie, House rules require a majority for a resolution to pass, meaning the measure was ultimately rejected
• Another round of talks took place on Thursday and Friday in Washington between Lebanon and Israel. Ahead of the meeting, Lebanon called for the implementation of a genuine ceasefire with Israel, while Israel demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah. The first day of discussions ended on a positive tone, with a US official describing the talks as constructive
• After announcing the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to centralize transit procedures through the Strait of Hormuz last week, Iran has expanded its definition of this strategic chokepoint. Under this new framework, the area it considers part of the strait has reportedly been broadened from roughly 20 - 30 miles to a much wider zone of around 200 - 300 miles. Meanwhile, the EU is considering extending its naval mission from the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz once the war ends, to protect ships. In parallel, the UAE plans to double its crude oil export capacity by 2027 through the accelerated construction of a new West - East pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz
• On Thursday and Friday, US President Donald Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping. Following the talks, Trump stated China has agreed to buy American oil, to help with Iran negotiations and not to supply military equipment to Tehran, adding that the Chinese President would like the Strait of Hormuz reopen without tolls. Donald Trump also added that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets. In parallel, Nvidia also reportedly got the US approval to sell its H200 chips to major Chinese companies

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US consumer prices rose 3.8% YoY in April, marking their highest level since May 2023. The figure came in 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 2.8%, underscoring that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, real average hourly wages declined by 0.3% YoY. Following the release, traders reportedly increased the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to around 30%
• US wholesale prices posted their largest monthly gain since March 2022 in April. The PPI rose 1.4% for the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, well above the 0.5% consensus forecast from Dow Jones. On an annual basis, the index climbed 6%, marking the strongest increase since December 2022. Excluding food and energy, core PPI also exceeded expectations, accelerating 1% versus estimates of 0.4%
• US import and export prices in April reached their highest levels since 2022. Import prices rose 1.9% over the month, significantly above the 0.9% Dow Jones forecast, bringing the YoY increase to 4.2%, the highest level since October 2022. Export prices climbed 8.8% YoY, marking the strongest increase since September 2022
• Following Kevin Warsh’s confirmation by the Senate ahead of his takeover of the Fed on Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects price pressures to ease within the next few months. He described the current supply shock linked to the US – Iran conflict as transient, noting that core inflation had already been declining before the escalation and emphasizing the US’ ability to overcome the disruption through sustained oil production
• French consumer prices rose by 2.2% YoY in April, confirming the preliminary estimate released by INSEE. Energy prices accelerated sharply, increasing by 14.3% YoY in April after rising by 7.4% surge in March
• After the UK Labor Party suffered some of its worst local election losses in decades amid growing public anger over the slow pace of economic reforms, Keir Starmer delivered a make-or-break speech on Monday aimed at convincing colleagues to keep him as party leader. Instead, the speech appears to have intensified the backlash. While 42 Labor MPs had called for his resignation by Sunday evening, the number rose to 77 by Monday night following the address. The political crisis deepened further on Tuesday with the first ministerial resignation. On Thursday, Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary, sharply criticizing Starmer in his resignation letter. The week ended with a new potential rival emerging for Starmer's leadership, as Andy Burnham is expected to contest a special parliamentary by-election that, if successful, would give him the seat needed to challenge Starmer
• The conflict in the Middle East is adding pressure on China's economy, as reflected in the sharp rise in producer prices. China's PPI increased by 2.8% YoY in April, the strongest rise since July 2022, marking a significant acceleration from the 0.5% YoY increase recorded in March. Geopolitical uncertainty is also weighing on Toyota. Despite stronger sales this year, the company expects operating profits to decline by 20% between April 2026 and March 2027
• In April, India's CPI rose for a sixth consecutive month to 3.48%, up from 3.4% in March, despite the government's decision to keep fuel prices unchanged to shield consumers from the ongoing global oil shock. Even so, the figure came in below economists' expectations for a 3.8% increase. The RBI also revised down its real GDP growth forecasts, lowering its projection for the April - June quarter to 6.8% from 6.9%, and for the July - September quarter to 6.7% from 7%. Looking ahead, the RBI expects headline inflation to average around 4.6% over the financial year ending in March 2027
• The IEA warned that the world is drawing on its oil reserves at a record pace and cautioned that another wave of price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches. Global oil inventories fell by 129m barrels in March, followed by an additional decline of 117m barrels in April. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, now expecting demand to rise by 1.17m barrels per day, down from its previous estimate of 1.38m. However, for 2027, OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.54m barrels per day, representing an increase of 200'000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Samsung Electronics lost as much as 99.07tn won in market value after failing to reach a wage agreement with its labor union. This occurred as the union threatened an 18-day strike starting May 21 if its demands were not met. The union said its rally on April 23, which drew 40'000 workers, caused a 58% drop in foundry production and an 18% decline in memory production for Samsung on that day. It added that an 18-day strike could cost the company 30tn won. Samsung's shares later reversed losses and turned positive, particularly after South Korea's Prime Minister instructed the government to help avert the strike
• Following the largest IPO for a US tech company since Uber’s market debut in 2019, Cerebras Systems opened at $350, after selling 30m shares at $185 each. The blockbuster IPO pushed the chipmaker’s valuation to $100bn
• SpaceX is reportedly preparing to disclose its prospectus as soon as next week. The company is aiming to launch a roadshow to officially market the deal to investors on June 8 and the filing must be released at least 15 calendar days before the roadshow begins.
• Nintendo shares plunged 8.4% to 7'020 yen, their lowest level since August 2024, after the company warned that sales of its Switch 2 console would decline this fiscal year and announced a price increase driven by rising memory costs linked to the AI infrastructure boom. The stock has fallen 34% this year
• Saudi Aramco exceeded analyst expectations by $2.4bn, reporting adjusted net income of $33.6bn, up 26% YoY in quarterly profits. The strong performance was largely driven by the fact that a key pipeline enabling the company to bypass the Strait of Hormuz reached full capacity. However, despite this robust performance, the group's CEO remains pessimistic about the overall consequences of the war in the Middle East, warning that it has triggered the largest energy shock the world has ever experienced and that markets may not return to normal functioning until 2027. Indeed, Saudi Aramco estimates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a global supply loss of 100m barrels of oil per week
• Shares of ZoomInfo Technologies plunged more than 33% after the company cuts its full-year revenue guidance. ZoomInfo now expects revenue in the range of $1.185bn to 1.205bn, down from its previous forecast of $1.247bn to $1.267bn
• Alibaba reported an 84% plunge in its core profit in the March quarter, driven by heavy investments in technology and its e-commerce business, despite accelerating growth in AI and cloud segments. However, the company is seeing strong returns from these investments, with its overall China e-commerce revenue rising 6% YoY in the March quarter. Its cloud computing division also posted a 38% YoY increase in revenue over the same period
• Ford shares surged 20% over two days after the company announced the launch of Ford Energy. The wholly owned subsidiary aims to provide battery energy storage systems assembled in the US for utilities, data centers, and large industrial and commercial customers across the country
• Following the release of better-than-expected quarterly earnings and guidance, along with the announcement of nearly 4’000 job cuts, shares of Cisco Systems jumped 12%. The rally significantly contributed to pushing the Dow Jones to the 50’000 level on Thursday
• Despite Honda posting its first annual operating loss in nearly 70 years, its shares rose more than 7% on Friday. For the fiscal year ending March, the automaker reported an operating loss of 414.3bn yen, compared with an operating profit of 1.2tn yen the previous year. The positive share price reaction may have been driven by strong forward guidance, with both operating and net profit forecasts coming in around 38% above market expectations

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 18.05: Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales YoY (April)
• 19.05: Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1), RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Unemployment Rate (Mar), Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (Apr)
• 20.05:  UK and European CPI YoY (Apr), FOMC Minutes
• 21.05: Japanese Balance of Trade, German and UK Manufacturing PMI (May), UK PMI (May), US Housing Starts (Apr), US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May), US Initial Jobless Claims
• 22.05: Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (Apr), German Ifo Business Climate (May), German GDP QoQ (Q1), UK Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Earnings

• 18.05: Baidu, Agilysys, Trip.com
• 19.05: The Home Depot, Bilibili Inc, Palo Alto
• 20.05: Nvidia Corporation, Intuit, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Analog Devices
• 21.05: Walmart, Deere & Co, Take-Two Interactive Software
• 22.05: Compagnie Financière Richemont

Chart of the Week

Are stocks becoming a new safe haven in turbulent times?

Despite the pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, US inflation peaking at 9%, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, US 10Y Treasury yields reaching 5%, renewed trade tensions and now the US - Iran conflict, the chart below highlights global equities' capacity to deliver strong returns after absorbing repeated macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks. In this context, stock performance appears increasingly driven by corporate fundamentals and earnings dynamics rather than external volatility, suggesting that equities can, at times, act as a partial hedge against turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical environments. Since 2020, global equities have risen at an annualized rate of 11%.

This resilience reflects investors' tendency to price such disruptions as transitory rather than as the onset of more persistent downturns. This perspective was echoed earlier this week by Bessent, who characterized the supply shock linked to the US - Iran tensions as temporary. Equity markets appear to share a similar view: while geopolitical shocks are expected to lift energy prices, reignite inflation and weigh on global growth in the short term, thereby affecting equity performance in the near term, they are not generally perceived as altering the longer-term trajectory of equity gains, which tend to resume quickly thereafter. 

As a result, investors appear to anchor their expectations on resilient growth and earnings, supporting a rapid rally in equity markets in an environment that would otherwise appear highly destabilizing.

Source: BNY Wealth