An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week that began as an energy crisis and ended as a ceasefire trade,  the S&P is up 4.6% and the Nasdaq is up 6.6% Europe was 2.3% The Nikkei was up 3.4%  China’s mainland market was up 1.0%

• The US 10-year yield entered the week at 4.36%, hovering near three-week highs as investors monitored the blockade announcement and held positions ahead of the diplomatic calendar. Tuesday saw yields drop after the soft PPI reading and the fall in oil prices reduced near-term inflation fears. Wednesday and Thursday saw yields edge back up but on Friday the 10Y sank again to 4.23%, as the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening sent oil crashing more than 10%, collapsing the energy-driven inflation premium that had kept rates elevated all week and reviving expectations that the Fed may have room to resume rate cuts
• Brent opened Monday at around Fortune $103.72 as the naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect and geopolitical risk repriced sharply higher. It then retraced steadily as peace talk signals and the soft PPI print reduced the inflation premium. The decisive move came Friday: on Iran's announcement that the Strait was fully open to commercial shipping, with Brent crashing below $90, ending the week some $20 below where it started
• Gold ended the week above $4’860, on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The sharp move higher on Friday reflected reduced inflationary pressures and improved expectations that central banks may have less reason to tighten further, supporting non-yielding assets
• The Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week at approximately 97.90, comfortably below the psychologically important 100 level. The pattern was consistent with the week's geopolitical arc: the blockade announcement Monday briefly supported safe-haven dollar demand, but each positive peace signal (the Hormuz opening, Trump's ‘very close to an agreement’ statement, the Israel-Lebanon truce) chipped away at the war premium embedded in the currency
• The week's arc for Bitcoin, from $71’000 on Monday after the blockade was announced, to $78’860 by Friday's close, is the clearest expression in crypto of how completely the geopolitical narrative drove risk appetite across the week

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

Iran/Strait of Hormuz

• President Trump imposed a naval blockade on all vessels bound for or departing from Iranian ports on Monday, following the collapse of the Islamabad talks over the weekend. The IRGC stated that any US military vessels approaching the Strait would be considered a ceasefire violation, and Iran threatened retaliatory blockades across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea. President Trump simultaneously signalled openness to resuming talks, telling reporters Iran ‘would like to make a deal very badly’. On Wednesday, three oil tankers exited the Gulf through the Strait carrying five million barrels of crude , the first such shipments since the blockade was imposed. On Thursday, Pres. Trump stated that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium, raising expectations that a deal framework was taking shape. On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for commercial vessels for the remaining ceasefire period, in line with the Israel-Lebanon truce. Pres. Trump thanked Tehran but immediately clarified that the naval blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force" until a full peace deal is concluded

Israel / Lebanon

• Following the first official contact between Israel and Lebanon since 1983, direct talks took place in Washington on Tuesday. Israel stated it seeks peace and normalisation with Lebanon, framing Hezbollah, not the Lebanese state, as the sole obstacle. Both sides described the meeting as constructive. On Thursday,  Pres. Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon including Hezbollah forces, and said direct talks between the two countries would resume in Washington within four to five days. Lebanon subsequently accused Israel of violating the ceasefire within hours of its announcement, while still affirming that direct talks remained essential

European Defence / NATO

• Italy suspended the automatic renewal of its 2006 defence agreement with Israel, following an incident in which Israeli forces fired warning shots at an Italian UN peacekeeping convoy in Lebanon and sharp public criticism by Foreign Minister Tajani over Israeli strikes on Lebanese civilians. Amid persistent concerns over Pres. Trump's posture toward NATO, the EU and NATO both signalled willingness to deepen coordination in strengthening Europe's defence industrial base

Multilateral Response

• On Friday, France and the UK convened a meeting of approximately 30 nations to discuss a strictly defensive multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait, with the creation of an operations centre in Oman under consideration. Simultaneously, a multilateral forum opened in Antalya with representatives from more than 150 countries focused on reducing regional tensions and addressing the broader humanitarian and economic fallout from the conflict

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• Chinese Q1 GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year,  an acceleration from Q4 2025's 4.5% and ahead of the consensus 4.8%, driven by strong electrical and mechanical exports, though officials cautioned against volatile external conditions ahead. The details are more sobering: March retail sales rose only 1.7% year-on-year, missing the 2.3% forecast and slowing from 2.8% prior. The standout print for EM investors: China's factory-gate PPI turned positive for the first time since September 2022, up 0.5% year-on-year, the end of the deflationary overhang Beijing has been fighting for years,
• Eurozone Final March CPI came in at 2.6%, up sharply from 1.9% in February and the highest since July 2024, driven by energy price pass-through from Middle East supply disruption
• US PPI came in at +0.5% month-on-month against a consensus of +1.1%, with core PPI up only 0.1% versus a 0.5% forecast, a significant undershoot. Services inflation was flat on the month, and a 0.3% decline in trade service margins suggests businesses are absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them on. On an annual basis producer prices are running at 4.0% year-on-year
• BOJ Governor Ueda, speaking at the IMF meetings in Washington on Wednesday, acknowledged that Japan is facing inflation driven Investing.com by a ‘negative supply shock’,  harder to curb through monetary policy than demand-driven price rises,  and noted that Japan's real interest rate remains low, but stopped well short of signalling an April rate hike. Markets took the comments as a clear dovish signal, with pricing of an April hike collapsing to around 10%
• In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut global growth to 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, projecting a modest uptick in headline inflation before the disinflationary trend resumes in 2027. The IMF flagged that downside risks dominate,  a longer or broader conflict, renewed trade tensions, or a reassessment of AI-driven productivity could significantly weaken the outlook

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Goldman Sachs posted profit up 19% year-on-year to $5.63 billion and revenue up 14% to $17.23bn, the firm's second-highest quarterly total on record. The equities desk was the engine, surging 27% to a record $5.33 billion on hedge fund financing and elevated cash equities volumes, and investment banking fees climbed 48% to $2.84 billion on a surge in completed M&A advisory. The divergence was in FICC: fixed income revenue fell 10% to $4.01 billion, weighed down by weakness across interest rate products, the mortgage market, and credit, a $910 million miss against estimates. Despite the headline beat, GS shares fell 2.85% on the day, and the market's verdict pointed to something beyond the trading mix: the provision for credit losses came in at $315 million against a $150 million estimate, more than double consensus and the largest such build since 2020, flagging rising stress in the private credit and corporate loan book. The trading floor is thriving on volatility; the lending book is quietly sending a different signal. CEO Solomon cautioned that if the conflict resolution drags, it ‘probably will be a headwind in some of these areas, particularly inflation trends as we get further into the second and third quarter’
• JPMorgan beat on both lines, earning $5.94 per share on revenue of $50.54bn, with net income up 13% and fixed income trading revenue rising 21% to $7.08 billion. Investment banking fees jumped 28% to $2.88 billion on higher M&A advisory and equity underwriting. The bank lowered its full-year 2026 net interest income forecast from $104.5bn to approximately $103bn. Jamie Dimon's tone was characteristically cautious on the geopolitical and inflation outlook
• Citigroup results beat expectations. The markets division drove the beat, with the fixed income unit up 13% to $5.2bn and equities surging 39% to $2.1bn. The caveat was credit: the provision for credit losses came in at $2.81bn, above the $2.64bn forecast, driven by net credit losses in consumer cards and an growing allowances for credit losses. Wells Fargo’s results were mixed: an earnings beat, EPS of $1.60 versus the $1.58 consensus,  was overshadowed by a revenue shortfall, with the $21.45bn top line missing the $21.76bn forecast despite 6% year-on-year growth. Net interest income of $12.1bn fell short of analyst estimates, sending shares down nearly 5% in pre-market trading. CEO Scharf noted continued consumer spending resilience but flagged that the full impact of higher oil prices on borrowers would take time to materialize

• TSMC posted a 58% increase in first-quarter profit, driven by strong AI chip demand. Revenue beat, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly record. TSMC said advanced chips accounted for about 75% of total wafer revenue in the quarter. During Thursday's earnings call, executives said the company is adding an advanced chip fabrication plant in Taiwan, reflecting its expansion efforts and expectations that demand will remain strong
• LVMH Organic sales grew just 1% in Q1, missing the 1.5% consensus, with the Middle East conflict directly responsible for a 1% drag on group growth. The read-through on the flagship division was discouraging: Fashion & Leather Goods declined 2% organically, while Watches & Jewelry led the group with 7% organic growth and Wines & Spirits rose 5%. The regional picture is nuanced,  Asia excluding Japan saw strong growth, confirming the improvement in trends observed in the second half of 2025, while the US saw a good start to the year. LVMH confirmed that the war is a real drag on the highest-frequency luxury spending rather than a statistical noise story
• Novo Nordisk announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI covering drug discovery, manufacturing, supply chain and commercial operations, with full integration targeted by end of 2026. The strategic context matters as much as the deal itself: Novo's 2026 guidance calls for adjusted sales growth of negative 5% to negative 13% at constant exchange rates, a brutal reversal for a company that was delivering explosive growth eighteen months ago. Eli Lilly now holds more than 60% of the US obesity drug market, with tirzepatide-based treatments outpacing semaglutide on prescription volume. The OpenAI deal signals that Novo is restructuring its competitive strategy around R&D speed while it waits for a CagriSema regulatory decision expected around year-end

Chart of the Week

The Taxman Giveth, and the Petrol Station Taketh Away

Pres. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act was supposed to be the demand catalyst of 2026 for the US consumer, a sweeping fiscal package promising the average American household an additional $400 in tax refunds versus last year. In isolation, that is a meaningful impulse. In the context of $4.13 average retail gasoline prices,  up nearly a dollar from April 2025,  it is something closer to a fiscal mirage.

The chart below makes the distribution problem clear: The OBBBA tax windfall is front-loaded toward the affluent: the top quintile pockets close to $880 in refund benefit, roughly four times the $220 flowing to the bottom 20%. The gas price drag, by contrast, is indiscriminate in its direction but concentrated in its damage precisely where the refund is weakest;  for the middle two quintiles, the energy headwind erases more than 90% of the fiscal boost, leaving residual stimulus that is barely distinguishable from zero.

The bottom two quintiles fare relatively better, not because they receive more, but because they drive less, with roughly 62% of their refund offset by higher gas costs. The top quintile, receiving the largest windfall by a wide margin, is the only group where the fiscal impulse genuinely dominates.

The macroeconomic implication cuts both ways. On the recession question, the concentration of net stimulus at the top is paradoxically protective: high-income households account for a disproportionate share of US consumption, and their spending power is largely intact. A broad consumer-led contraction is unlikely on this basis alone. But the inflation picture is less reassuring. The energy shock is doing exactly what a negative supply shock does, raising prices without generating the demand that would justify them, keeping headline inflation elevated while compressing real purchasing power for the households most likely to spend every dollar they receive.

The OBBBA's fiscal impulse, rather than cleanly boosting growth, is being recycled back into energy costs for the middle class, keeping inflation sticky, suppressing the Fed's room to cut, and sustaining upward pressure on the long end of the curve. The bill was designed to stimulate. For most Americans, it is instead subsidising their commute.

Source: BLS, EIA, IRS, JPMorgan Asset Management