An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week Pres. Trump put a price tag on his own Truth Social posts, the S&P slipped -1.3% and the Nasdaq lost -2.7%. Europe declined -0.6%, the Nikkei fell -6.4% and China’s mainland market dropped -5.3%
• The US 10Y Treasury yield opened the week by rising above 4.60%, driven by renewed US – Iran strikes and President Trump’s reinstatement of the blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, bond markets received a  boost as the June US CPI and PPI releases came in softer than expected and pushed the 10Y yield down to 4.53%. Renewed attacks between the US and Iran lifted yields again, with the 10Y Treasury finishing the week at 4.54%
• Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove Brent crude futures higher, reaching a high of $87.55 per barrel by midweek. Prices stayed elevated throughout the week as hostilities between Tehran and Washington intensified
• Gold ended the week down -2.4% at $4’015 per ounce, while silver declined -6.5% to $55.9 per ounce
• Bitcoin ended the week down -0.9%, closing at around $63’326, while Ethereum was up +1.9% at $1’827

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Middle East tensions escalated, President Trump reinstated the US naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and initially proposed a 20% transit toll for vessels using the strategic waterway, framing it as payment for US protection. A day later, he reversed course, saying Gulf states would instead offset the cost through increased investment in the US
• The renewed blockade further strained regional tensions, while maritime traffic through Hormuz slowed sharply, with confirmed crossings down around 52% week-on-week between July 10 and 12
• Iran told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Yemen-Djibouti chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, threatening to shut the Middle East’s second major oil export route alongside the already-closed Strait of Hormuz
• Despite continued exchanges of fire throughout the week, President Trump maintained that the war with Iran was progressing well, stating on Thursday that « We are likewise winning big in Iran, and you will see the fruits of that labor very, very shortly »

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US inflation surprised to the downside, with consumer prices posting their largest monthly decline in more than six years. CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in June, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%, below expectations of a 3.8% increase. In parallel, PPI declined 0.3%, while core PPI rose just 0.2% versus expectations of 0.3%. Core inflation remained unchanged on the month, leaving the 12-month rate at 2.6%
• Calling inflation an ‘unfair burden’, Kevin Warsh renewed his push for a ‘regime change’ at the central bank. His vision: a monetary policy firmly anchored on restoring price stability and ensuring the inflation surge of the past five years becomes a chapter in the past
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that higher oil prices could still reignite inflation, pointing to an ‘equally plausible’ scenario where inflation remains elevated or rises further, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term
• July US consumer sentiment rose to 54.4, significantly above expectations

• China’s economy disappointed in the second quarter, with GDP growth slowing to 4.3% , below the 4.5% consensus forecast and down from 5% in the previous quarter. Exports are booming, however. Separate customs figures showed the value of goods shipped abroad rising 27% in June, while car shipments jumped 75% year-on-year to top 1 million units in a single month for the first time
• Singapore continued to defy global headwinds. Despite tensions in the Middle East, its economy grew 5.7% in Q2, beating forecasts, though easing from the revised 6.3% expansion recorded in Q1
• For the first time in three and a half years, the Bank of Korea raised its base rate, lifting it a quarter point to 2.75%. Governor Shin Hyun-song said the semiconductor export boom is set to ‘spill over into domestic demand,’ while a weaker won and higher oil prices continue to feed inflation
• Inflationary pressures returned in India as consumer inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June from 3.93% in May, slightly above expectations and signaling a renewed uptick in prices

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• TSMC continues to ride the AI wave. After June sales jumped 67.9% YoY, the chipmaker announced plans to build two new advanced packaging plants in southern Taiwan to meet surging demand. The momentum was reflected in its second-quarter results, with profit up 77.4% YoY. Revenue met expectations, while net income beat estimates and climbed 23.4% QoQ to fifth straight record high
• ASML raised its guidance for the second time this year, following stronger-than-expected quarterly results, driven by better-than-anticipated net sales and net profits. The semiconductor equipment maker now expects full-year sales to reach €43bn – €45bn, up from its previous guidance of €36bn – €40bn, while gross margin is projected at 54% – 56% compared with earlier forecast of 51% – 53%
• SK Hynix shares plunged more than 15% in Seoul, marking their worst day following the chipmaker’s strong Nasdaq debut, as investors locked in profits and reassessed AI memory demand this year’s sharp rally
• IBM shares plunged 23% after preliminary quarterly results missed expectations, putting the stock on track for its worst day since 1987. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.93 versus $3.01 expected, while revenue reached $17.2bn, below the $17.86bn consensus
• Apple escalated its legal battle with OpenAI, contacting around 40 former employees now working at the AI company to preserve documents and communications and requesting meetings with its lawyers, a week after accusing OpenAI and two employees of stealing secret hardware plans
• Alibaba and Baidu announced partnerships with Apple to integrate AI tools into Apple services in China, with Baidu supporting Apple Intelligence features and Alibaba’s Qwen AI model being integrated into Apple’s ecosystem

• Meta’s Hyperion data center is ballooning into an AI infrastructure mega-project. Originally planned as a $27bn, 2GW facility, the Louisiana project has expanded into a 5GW site costing over $50bn. This is a powerful reminder that few anticipated the speed, scale and capital intensity of the AI race
• SpaceX aborted its Starship test flight, while Elon Musk said another attempt could take place soon. Shares in the company fell below their IPO price this week reaching a low at  $122.12 intraday Friday

• Morgan Stanley posted record quarterly revenue and profit, driven by a 69% surge in equities trading revenue. EPS reached $3.46 versus $2.94 expected, while revenue climbed to $21.35bn. JPMorgan posted a record $21.2bn quarterly profit, the highest in US banking history. Goldman Sachs had its best quarter ever, with EPS of $20.98, nearly double year-on-year. Wells Fargo beat with EPS of $2.00 versus $1.72 expected and revenue of $22.62bn versus $21.84bn expected
• UnitedHealth Group raised its full-year profit outlook after stronger-than-expected earnings, supported by improved medical cost management and AI-driven operational efficiencies. The company now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $19.5 to $20, up from more than $18.25 previously

• United Airlines delivered better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue, but rising costs quickly took center stage. The airline warned that soaring fuel prices could add nearly $6bn to its 2026 expenses versus its previous forecast, as quarterly fuel costs surged 84% YoY
• Netflix reported quarterly results broadly in line with expectations, with revenue reaching $12.56bn, up 13% YoY, though slightly below estimates

• Stripe and Advent International submitted a joint bid to acquire PayPal.The $53bn tender offer implies $60.08 per share, a 27% premium on Tuesday’s close, but well below where it traded a year ago at $75
• EasyJet switched its backing from Castlelake, an American investment firm, to a rival £5.7bn takeover proposal from Apollo, the private-equity giant. Apollo’s offer of £7.15 a share topped Castlelake’s £6.90, prompting EasyJet’s board to say it was ‘no longer minded’ to recommend the earlier deal
•  Uber agreed to buy Delivery Hero, a German online food-ordering company operating in around 65 countries, in a deal valuing it at €13bn Delivery Hero will divest its Turkish business, Yemeksepeti, along with other overlapping European operations, to the investment firm SSW Partners
• Eli Lilly agreed to acquire psychedelic drugmaker AtaiBeckley for $2.8bn upfront, as the development of psychedelic-based mental health treatments gains momentum under the Trump administration’s priorities

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 20.07:US leading Economic Index (JUN)
• 21.07: EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (JUL)
• 22.07: UK Inflation Rate YoY (JUN)
• 23.07: ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
• 24.07: Japan Inflation Rate YoY (JUN), US, EU, Japan Flash PMIs (JUL)

Earnings

20.07-24.07

• 20.07: Charles Schwab, Danaher
• 21.07: Novartis
• 22.07: Google, GE Vernova, ServiceNow, IBM, Tesla, Iberdrola, Santander
• 23.07: Intel, SAP, Blackstone, Freeport, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, RTX, BNP Paribas, UniCredit, Nestle, Roche
• 24.07: Amex, NextEra

Chart of the Week

Breadth is the new Black

Amid growing concerns over the sustainability of hyperscalers’ AI capex and their ability to translate massive investments into profits, investors are increasingly diversifying beyond Big Techs. As a sign of the scale of AI spendings, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet are expected to invest around $725bn in AI infrastructure this year, a 77% increase from last year.

US small caps appear to be the main beneficiaries of this rotation, supported by resilient economic growth, favorable tax changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and relatively attractive valuations. Investors are particularly focusing on technology and infrastructure companies positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure spending.

The Russel 2000, the benchmark for US small-cap stocks, has gained more than 20% this year and is on track for its strongest performance since 2003. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up around 10%, while the Magnificent Seven has returned only 3%