An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week a peace treaty was signed at Versailles, proving that some venues never learn, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Nasdaq added 2.7%, Europe was up 0.8%, the Nikkei ramped up 7.2%, and China's mainland market rose 4.7%

• US Treasury yields were pulled in two directions this week. The initial Iran breakthrough sent bonds higher as geopolitical risk premia compressed. That move reversed sharply following the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. The Fed left rates unchanged but left the door open to a hike later this year. The 2Y yield surged more than 16bp to 4.216% on the day, its largest single-session move on a Fed meeting day since March 2008. The 10Y rose over 7bp to 4.499%. As the week closed and deal uncertainty resurfaced, both yields retraced: the 2Y ended at 4.179%, the 10Y at 4.455%
• Brent crude fell nearly 7.5% on the week after Donald Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and Iran would be permitted to resume crude exports immediately. By Tuesday, Brent had fallen below $80 per barrel to $78.96, its lowest since March. A brief midweek rebound of nearly 1% followed Trump's suggestion that the deal was not yet done and hostilities could resume. It faded quickly once the MOU was formally signed and attention shifted to future supply growth. The IEA added pressure, warning of a potential global oil supply surplus in 2027. A late-week spike followed the abrupt breakdown of follow-up talks in Switzerland, but that too faded rapidly. Brent ended the week at $79.02, down roughly 1%, with an additional Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire removing another layer of geopolitical premium from the market
• The World Gold Council's annual Central Bank Gold Reserves survey confirmed that global central bank demand is expected to grow over the coming year. Reserve managers are actively raising domestic bullion storage and diversifying the geographic spread of their holdings, a reflection of a more fragmented geopolitical and monetary landscape. Notably, the pullback in gold prices during the Iran conflict has not altered the structural conviction: monetary authorities continue to view gold as a core hedge against inflation, currency risk, and geopolitical uncertainty
• The dollar reached its highest level since May 2025 on Thursday, with the DXY touching 100.71 as Warsh's hawkish posture reinforced expectations of further tightening. The yen bore the brunt: at 161.8 per dollar on Thursday, it touched its weakest level since July 2024 and approached levels last seen in 1986. Japanese officials reiterated their readiness to intervene

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The MOU between the US and Iran, formally signed on June 17, triggered significant market relief over the weekend. The framework commits Iran to diluting enriched uranium stockpiles under IAEA supervision in exchange for sanctions relief and the immediate resumption of oil exports. A $300bn investment fund for Iran would follow a final agreement. Both sides were due to open 60 days of comprehensive negotiations in Switzerland on June 19. The meeting was postponed at the last minute
• The fragility was visible all week. Iran signalled its intention to charge transit fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping. JD Vance stated Washington expected no permanent tolls. Israel declared its forces would remain in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely, and exchanges of fire with Hezbollah continued despite the framework. Iran had consistently insisted any deal must include a Lebanon ceasefire. Trump warned mid-week that the US would "go right back to dropping bombs" if Tehran misbehaved. The framework also faced domestic and international criticism for being excessively favourable to Iran. Sentiment stabilised briefly after a separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was announced
• The G7 summit produced commitments to tighten sanctions on Russian oil and gas and to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals. Both look aspirational: Ukraine launched its largest ever drone strike on Moscow by week's end, hitting a major oil refinery, and Russia pledged massive retaliatory strikes. Trump indicated he would consider reinstating Russian oil sanctions eased during the Iran conflict
• Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of US military deployments in Europe, following the withdrawal of 5'000 troops from Germany and the cancellation of a long-range fires battalion deployment. Relations between Washington and Berlin are deteriorating.

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair produced no change in rates, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50% to 3.75%. The more important signal was the removal of prior guidance pointing toward a cut later this year, replaced by language leaving the door open to further tightening. Markets noticed:the probability of a Fed hike in 2026 jumped from 35% on Monday to 57% by Wednesday evening after the meeting
• Elsewhere, central banks diverged. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, though two of nine MPC members voted for a hike. The Bank of Japan raised rates 25bp to 1.00%, its highest level since 1995, on a 7-1 vote, signalling that inflation is now the dominant concern in Tokyo. The RBA held at 4.35% with a tightening bias intact. The SNB held at 0% and reiterated its readiness to intervene in FX markets should franc appreciation resume
• UK headline inflation came in at 2.8% in May, below the 3.0% consensus. In China, retail sales contracted 0.6% YoY in May, their first decline since December 2022, while urban fixed-asset investment fell 4.1%. Industrial output at 4.5% was the lone bright spot. Japan's exports rose 17% YoY in May, their sharpest increase since November 2022, led by a 61% surge in semiconductor exports and 16% growth in automobile shipments
• The IMF assessed the global economy as resilient so far to the US-Iran conflict but flagged renewed escalation and energy supply disruption as the principal downside risks. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 340.3m barrels as of June 12, its lowest level since July 1983. The IEA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 1.1m barrels per day, nearly three times its prior estimate, and noted that OECD inventories have fallen 163m barrels since the conflict began, touching their lowest level since 1990. Global fertilizer trade fell 30% in the first four months of 2026, with the FAO warning that even a Hormuz reopening would produce only a slow and uneven recovery

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, pricing at $135 per share and raising $75bn. Shares ended the first week of trading 37% above the IPO price, with a closing market capitalisation of $2.4tn, making it the sixth largest company in the world. The intraweek ride was anything but linear. SPCX hit an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16 before selling off sharply. Two developments triggered the reversal: the announcement of the $60bn all-stock acquisition of AI coding tool Cursor, representing immediate dilution for buyers from the open, and Bloomberg's report that SpaceX was simultaneously planning a $20bn bond offering. Shares fell 3.6% on Thursday alone, bringing the two-day decline to 8.3%
• On valuation, analyst views diverge sharply. Morningstar pegs fair value near $780bn, less than half the current market capitalisation. ARK Invest projects up to $3.1tn by 2030. Musk added fuel by posting that SpaceX "might be able to reach approximately" $1tn in revenue by 2030, against $18.7bn generated in 2025
• Three structural dynamics now dominate the near-term trading picture. First, SPCX is set for Nasdaq-100 inclusion in early July, triggering forced institutional buying from ETFs and mutual funds. Rigorous modelling of the mechanics suggests index-tracker demand of approximately $10bn, or around 8% of the free float, translating to a modest 1.6% to 2.2% temporary price impact, considerably less than retail investors appear to be pricing in. Second, SpaceX will not be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion until it posts four consecutive quarters of GAAP profits, expected no earlier than late 2027. Third, the lockup structure leaves only around 4% of shares freely trading until the first earnings release, creating the conditions for significant price volatility

• Nvidia is seeking to raise at least $20bn in debt through its first bond issuance since the start of the AI boom. The chipmaker reportedly plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including refinancing and debt repayment
• Salesforce plans to acquire AI customer service platform Fin in the Q4 FY2027 for approximately $3.6bn, as enterprises accelerate the deployment of agentic AI solutions and expand the use of autonomous customer service systems
• Fox Corp. has agreed to acquire Roku for roughly $22bn in the first half of 2027. The deal would significantly strengthen Fox's direct-to-consumer and advertising capabilities, as media groups increasingly focus on streaming platforms and high-value advertising inventory linked to live sports and major events, which continue to attract the largest audience
• Anthropic has been forced to suspend its most advanced AI models, Fable, and Mythos, just days after their public release. Following a decision by the Trump administration, the US Department of Commerce imposed export controls restricting access for foreign nationals. In response, Anthropic temporarily withdrew both models for all users while assessing compliance and operational implications
• Mobileye Global announced plans to launch its own robotaxi service, initially deploying a fleet of 100 vehicles in a major US city in 2027. The company intends to scale the fleet to approximately 17'000 vehicles over the following five years
• Intel shares rose 9% after reports that the company has agreed a deal with Apple to design and manufacture chips in the US

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 22.06: Canada CPI YoY (May)
• 23.06: EU, UK, Japan and US Global Manufacturing, services and Composite PMIs Flash (June)
• 24.06: Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)
• 25.06: US Core PCE (May), US Durable Goods Orders MoM (May), US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q1), US Personal Income MoM (May), US Personal Spending MoM (May)

Chart of the Week

An Econ 101 Problem with a $1.2 Trillion Footnote

Source: JP Morgan