An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week China entered the Year of the Fire Horse, the S&P is up 0.8% and the Nasdaq is up 1.7% Europe was up 2.1%. The Nikkei was down -0.2%, mainland China’s mainland market was closed
• The US Treasury yield curve has steepened modestly: 10-year yields traded in a narrow range near ~4.05–4.10%, ending the week slightly higher than recent lows as markets reacted to data. 2-year yields have been relatively more anchored, ending the week at 3.48%, reflecting still-strong expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady rather than aggressively cut soon
• Brent reached its highest level since August following the US ultimatum issued to Iran. Brent trades at $71.33 on Friday, up 5.3% on the week
• Gold remained in a consolidation phase, trading in the $4’850–$5’050 range. The week's price action reflected a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk on one side and dollar/rate pressure on the other, with geopolitics narrowly winning out by Friday, Gold trades at $5’050 at the time of writing
• Bitcoin was under pressure most of this week, trading consistently below the key $70’000 level. Crypto weakness is persisting amid macro uncertainty and regulatory discussions that have yet to catalyse a clear relief rally. Bitcoin trades at $67’152, down 2.2% on the week

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The US is deploying significant military force to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and drones, as Donald Trump gives Iran 10 to 15 days to reach a nuclear deal. This deployment suggests Trump is keeping open the option of launching a sustained military campaign in cooperation with Israel, while also considering a more limited strike to pressure Tehran into negotiations. Markets are growing increasingly anxious over a potential strike against Iran, as evidenced by the increase in oil prices
• The Munich Security Conference was notably less eventful than last year. Secretary of State Rubio adopted a conciliatory tone, reaffirming US-European ties, though Washington's stance on burden-sharing remains unchanged and Rubio skipped the Ukraine defense session. On the European side, von der Leyen called for activating the EU's mutual defense clause, Chancellor Merz opened discussions with President Macron on a European nuclear deterrent, and Denmark's PM reported a constructive but low-detail meeting with Rubio on Greenland
• The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, finding that the president overstepped his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose both his reciprocal tariffs and levies tied to fentanyl trafficking. Trump called the decision a disgrace and said he has a contingency plan. Stocks rose and Treasury yields jumped after the long-awaited ruling was announced. The dollar fell to a session low and gold pared gains. Retail and apparel shares from Nike to Target spiked

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• The January Fed minutes were out this week, they revealed that Fed officials were cautious about cutting rates. Several even raised the possibility of a hike should inflation persist. Most believed labour market weakness was fading, though the risk of sustained inflation remained
• The delayed US December PCE print came in hotter than expected, with both headline and core measures trending above forecasts and well above the Fed’s 2 % target. This underscores that inflation remains stubborn, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts
• US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, missing all estimates, weighed down by a record-long government shutdown, weak consumer spending, and trade headwinds
• UK unemployment rose to 5.2% in December, its highest since January 2021 and above the BoE’s 4.1% forecast. Wage growth also slowed more than expected, with average weekly earnings decelerating from 4.7% in November to 4.2%, below the 4.6% consensus. The softer labour picture supports a cut in March

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Several US SaaS companies, including McAfee, released preliminary results early to reassure lenders and investors amid AI-driven disruption. McAfee reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $626 million, while Rocket Software posted 5.2% growth to $1.4bn for 2025
• Palo Alto Networks beat Q2 expectations, posting adjusted EPS of $1.03, 15% revenue growth to $2.59bn, and $6.3 billion in annual recurring revenue. The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $11.28–$11.31bn, partly reflecting recent acquisitions including the $25bn CyberArk merger. However, it trimmed its full-year earnings guidance due to integration costs and high memory prices. CEO Nikesh Arora pointed to strong AI security demand as a key growth driver
• Walmart reported Thursday quarterly results in line with expectations for Q4, but indicated it anticipates a slowdown in its growth trajectory. The company also expressed concerns about labour availability, input costs, and tariffs. The stock declined 1.98%
• Blue Owl Capital triggered market anxiety after moving to halt quarterly redemptions at one of its retail-focused private credit funds, raising fears of similar moves across the sector. The firm disputed this characterisation, saying it was instead accelerating the return of capital, selling $1.4bn in assets at near full value and returning 30% of capital to investors within 45 days. Nevertheless, the episode has put the spotlight on elevated redemption requests across private credit funds more broadly

• Airbus reported adjusted profit of €2.98bn in Q4, ahead of expectations (€2.87bn), on revenue of €25.98bn, slightly below consensus (€26.51bn). Airbus stated that a persistent shortage of Pratt & Whitney engines has forced it to slow production of its best-selling A320. The company now plans to manufacture between 70 and 75 A320 aircraft per month by end of next year, down from a previous target of 75
• Renault posted a full-year net loss of €10.93bn, wider than expected (€9.73 billion), on revenue of €57.92bn, slightly above expectations (€57.70bn). The group anticipates a decline in profitability this year as it launches new electric models and faces intensifying competition in Europe. The company plans to reduce variable costs per vehicle by approximately €400 per year through improved technology and closer collaboration with suppliers. Renault is targeting an operating margin of between 5% and 7% and automotive free cash flow of at least €1.5bn on average over the medium term
• Nestlé reported 2025 revenue of CHF 89.49bn, slightly below expectations (CHF 89.83bn). Organic revenue growth came in at +3.5%, above consensus (+3.38%), with pricing up +2.8% and real internal growth of +0.8%, both ahead of expectations. The dividend per share stands at CHF 3.10, in line with forecasts. For 2026, Nestlé anticipates organic growth of between +3% and +4%, slightly above consensus (+3.18%). Nestlé indicated that the formal process regarding its Waters business has begun, with a spin off expected in 2027
• Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire Israeli rival ZIM Integrated Shipping Services for $4.2bn, or $35 per share in cash, representing a 58% premium to ZIM's last closing price. The deal would strengthen Hapag-Lloyd's position as the world's fifth-largest container shipping company, with a fleet of over 400 vessels. Israel's golden share in ZIM (which grants control over key ownership decisions) will be transferred to a carved-out entity owned by Israeli private-equity fund FIMI as part of the transaction

Chart of the Week

Boring is the New Black

The left-hand chart is an earnings scorecard for Q4 2025 from Factset dated 13.02.2026: Information Technology leads at 30.7% YoY earnings growth, Industrials follows at 26.0%, and the S&P 500 blended rate clocks in at a healthy 13.2% ,  the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, the strongest reading since 2021. The right-hand chart tracks factor performance relative to the S&P 500 over the latest 3-month period. Small-Cap (IJR) outperforms by +11.3%, High Dividend Yield (VYM) by +8.0%, Value (IWD) by +7.5%. Growth (IWF), home to the technology giants responsible for those headline earnings numbers, underperforms by 6.2%.

Growth delivered, but nobody cared. IT earnings surged, but that outcome was fully priced into stretched multiples, leaving no upside. AI enthusiasm is colliding with a harder question on returns: capex plans keep rising while monetisation remains uncertain, and cheaper Chinese models have intensified scrutiny on the IRR of the entire AI infrastructure cycle.

Industrials were the genuine surprise. Earnings swung dramatically higher versus expectations, driven by a mix of base effects in Aerospace & Defence (Boeing) and a powerful structural upswing in electrical equipment tied to US power infrastructure and AI-driven electricity demand. Construction and engineering are benefiting from reshoring and domestic investment. Crucially, this growth came at undemanding valuations, prompting the market to re-rate.

Factor performance tells us this is a healthy rotation; Small-cap and Value performance is following earnings reality, not front-running it. Flat Low Volatility confirms this is not a defensive rotation, while High Dividend Yield reflects a premium for earnings visibility amid macro uncertainty.

In conclusion, the question for the balance of 2026 is not whether AI transforms the economy… it will. It is whether the companies fuelling that transformation can justify their current multiples before the cycle turns. For now, the market has decided to invest in the picks-and-shovels of the revolution, the turbines, the transformers and the earth movers.