An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week the US debt clock hit $40tn, the S&P500 is down -1.3% and the Nasdaq is down -1.9%. Europe declined -1.2%, the Nikkei sank -3.9% and China’s mainland market dropped -0.9%
• US Treasury yields rose at the start of the week amid worsening fiscal concerns and persistent inflation, with the 30Y yield reaching a 19-year high above 5.33%; federal debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time, up a third in under five years, Interest expense has become the government’s third-largest budget line forcing the Treasury to ramp up long-bond buybacks to manage borrowing costs
• Yields briefly reversed after the Treasury announced it would at least double its debt buybacks from Sept. 9 to Nov. 4, pushing the 30Y yield down to 5.18%, before rebounding to 5.27%. The dollar tumbled to its weakest in three months on the buyback announcement
• Bond markets elsewhere also came under pressure, with Japan’s 10Y yield reaching a three-decade high, while German and French 30Y yields climbed to their highest levels since 2011 and 2008, respectively
• In contrast Chinese government bonds are bucking the global sell-off trend, with long yields (especially the 30-year) falling to multi-month lows and the curve flattening sharply. Weak July data has fueled easing expectations and a flight to duration, but the rally signals liquidity is pooling in financial assets rather than reaching the real economy

• Brent crude futures rose steadily for most of the week, increasing from $88.6 to $94.3 per barrel. The rise was driven by heightened US – Iran tensions following the expiry of the ceasefire, as well as the announcement of economic sanctions against Iran by the US and UAE
• Gold ended the week on track for a nearly 5.5% gain, with spot bullion at $4’613
• Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies surged after Pres. Trump urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act. Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of about 20% early Friday, ending the week at $77’240 up from $62’840 at the start of the week. Ethereum also advanced, ending the week at $2’393 (+27%)

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• As the 60-day deadline to reach a deal expired on Monday, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough quickly faded, with both Iran and the US ruling out an extension of the ceasefire
• Shortly after two Iranian ballistic missiles were allegedly fired at the UAE, Abu Dhabi announced the suspension of all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, a significant move given the UAE’s central role in Iran’s economy. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump announced an ‘Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale’ campaign against Iran, while threatening financial penalties against countries that help Tehran circumvent US sanctions
• Throughout the week, Pres. Trump also stepped up his verbal attacks on longstanding US allies. On the one hand, Washington threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf nation ‘gets in the way’, raising the stakes as Muscat works with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. On the other, Pres. Trump ordered a substantial reduction in joint military drills with South Korea and reportedly pushed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as early as this fall. South Korea’s military subsequently said the annual joint exercise with the US would be shortened by about half

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• The FOMC minutes revealed that many Fed officials expected higher rates to be necessary unless inflation started to show real signs of progress. At its latest meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.5% – 3.75%. The three dissenting officials favored a 25bp rate hike. The minutes also revealed discussions about changing the FOMC’s meeting schedule. Meanwhile, Pres. Trump continued to express frustration with the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates
• As the AI revolution gathers pace, ECB President Christine Lagarde called on European leaders not to repeat the mistakes made during the dotcom boom, arguing that Europe largely missed out on the first digital revolution
• After China posted its slowest GDP growth since late 2022 in Q2, July economic data pointed to continued weakness. Retail sales rose just 0.6% YoY, well below the 1.5% forecast, while industrial output increased 4.5%, also missing expectations of 4.8%. Meanwhile, the urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.2% in July from 5% in June
• Japan’s July core inflation came in line with expectations at 1.8%. Meanwhile, the economy grew at an annualized 1.1% in Q2, well below the 2% expected
• Andrei Klepach one of Russia’s top economists, was dismissed on Sunday, reportedly after presenting a report warning that Russia could not win a prolonged war of attrition with Ukraine and predicting a major social crisis. Shortly after his dismissal, Russian government officials insisted that the economy remained strong and resilient despite the war in Ukraine

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Alibaba’s profit plunged over 75% as quarterly AI-related capex neared $10 billion, driving net income down to CNY 10.5 billion and free cash flow to a negative $6.6 billion. Despite 9% revenue growth, heavy infrastructure spending is weighing heavily on near-term earnings. Management is framing this as a self-funding growth investment, pointing to AI product revenue approaching a $10 billion annualized run rate this quarter, signaling confidence that AI monetization can offset the elevated spend
• As Anthropic prepares for a potential blockbuster IPO, the Claude maker’s annualized revenue run rate reached $65bn at the end of July, up sevenfold YoY. Preliminary quarterly revenue came in at $11.5bn, 14 times higher than a year earlier
• Home Depot beat quarterly expectations on both earnings and revenue while reaffirming its full-year guidance. Rival Lowe’s, meanwhile, posted mixed results but maintained its full-year outlook, narrowing its guidance for total sales, comparable sales, and adjusted EPS to the lower end of its previous ranges

• Meta faces a major US jury trial brought by 29 state attorneys general alleging Facebook and Instagram were designed to foster addictive use in minors, in breach of consumer protection and privacy laws. Sought remedies include both damages and structural injunctions that could reshape platform design, with exposure reportedly as high as $1.4 trillion, a potentially material risk to Meta’s business model

• OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT for Teens, a chatbot platform designed for users under 18 that will feature stronger built-in safety protections as well as educational tools
• As part of a broader partnership between Google and Marvell Technology on custom chips, the Big Tech giant secured the right to purchase up to $12.2bn worth of shares in the chipmaker
• SK Hynix announced a massive share buyback, underscoring its confidence in its medium- to long-term outlook. The company is accelerating its $28.7bn share repurchase and cancellation program, while targeting shareholder returns of more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027. Shortly after, Samsung Electronics announced that it expects shareholder returns to reach $65.1bn – $79.52bn in 2026
• Unitree Robotics’ shares surged nearly 630% in their Shanghai debut, underscoring strong investor enthusiasm for China’s fast-growing humanoid robotics sector. Ahead of the listing, the company unveiled a new humanoid robot capable of jumping two meters from a standing point and reaching speeds of 12.66 meters per second. Morgan Stanley expects China’s humanoid robotics market to grow from around $2bn this year to $15bn by 2030
• Merck and Moderna’s experimental personalized cancer vaccine delivered positive initial results in its first-ever late-stage trial

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 25.08: German Business Climate (AUG)
• 26.08: US Core PCE Price Index (JUL), US Durable Goods Orders (JUL), US GDP Growth Rate (2nd Est Q2), US Personal Income and Spending (JUL)
• 27.08: German Consumer Confidence (SEP)

Earnings

24.08-28.08

• 24.08: Palo Alto Networks
• 25.08:  Intuit
• 26.08: Nvidia, CrowdStrike Holdings, Salesforce

Chart of the Week

Cloud Runs Better on Gas

Planned US power capacity additions have kept climbing, from roughly 115GW in 2020 to over 220GW by 2026, but the composition has shifted sharply since the data centre boom began around 2024. Renewables continued to grow in absolute terms, rising from about 75GW in 2020 to roughly 155GW planned for 2026, yet their share of the mix has effectively plateaued since 2023.

Natural gas, by contrast, has been the standout swing factor: after several years of relatively flat contribution (around 30 to 40GW), planned gas capacity has surged since 2024, nearly doubling to account for close to 70GW of the 2026 total.

The read-through is that surging electricity demand from AI and data centre buildout is being met increasingly by thermal sources rather than renewables. This likely reflects grid operators’ need for always-on capacity that can be dispatched efficiently to data centre clusters, whereas renewables face longer interconnection queues and intermittency constraints.

For portfolios, this reinforces the case for (old) energy infrastructure as a structural beneficiary of the AI capex cycle, alongside the more commonly discussed semiconductor and hyperscaler plays.

Source: EIA, Financial Times