An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week that everything was noise until Nvidia wasn't, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% and the Nasdaq is up 0.9%. Europe was up 3.5%. The Nikkei was up 3.1% and China's mainland market was down -0.3%
• Last week's rise in the US 10Y yield extended at the start of this week. It reached 4.6853% on Tuesday, its highest level in over a year, as global bond markets sold off on renewed concerns over inflationary pressures. The move was further fueled by rising geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump warned Iran that the 'clock is ticking' on a potential deal, adding that the consequences of a failure to reach an agreement would be severe. In parallel, the 30Y yield briefly rose to 5.198% on Wednesday, its highest level since July 2007. Midweek, the trend reversed, with the 10Y falling sharply after Pres. Trump said the administration was in the final stages of negotiations with Iran. The downward move briefly reversed again on Thursday after Iran's Supreme Leader issued a directive requiring enriched uranium to remain within the country. Treasury yields ultimately ended the week lower, with the 10Y last seen at 4.57%
• Several other benchmarks also hit notable levels across global bond markets. On Tuesday, the 10Y German bund yield climbed to 3.198% its highest level since May 6, 2011, while Japan's 10Y JGB surged to 2.796% its highest level since the spring of  1997. In the UK, amid uncertainty over Keir Starmer's future in politics, the 10Y Gilt yield rose to 5.188%, its highest level since July 2008
• Brent crude swung violently through the week, spiking to a high of $112.72 on Monday as geopolitical tensions remained acute, before selling off sharply over the following three sessions as diplomacy appeared to gain traction. The contract touched a weekly low of $102.17 on Thursday, shedding more than $10 a barrel from its peak, as markets priced in a growing probability of a deal between Washington and Tehran. On Friday, Brent stabilized around $103, leaving it down roughly 9% from its Monday high and on track for a significant weekly decline, despite the unresolved standoff over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and the future of the Strait of Hormuz
• Gold ended the week slightly lower, heading for a second consecutive weekly, held back by growing inflation concerns and expectations of a US interest rate hike later this year. Bullion was down approx. -0.5% at $4'514 per ounce
• The dollar gained traction on the hope of a US - Iran peace deal finally materialising. The dollar index rose 0.17% to 99.37, just shy of six-week highs

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• The week was defined by a now familiar pattern: diplomatic optimism punctured by hardline reversals. Trump canceled a Tuesday strike on Iran at Gulf leaders' request, declared negotiations in their "final phase" midweek, and received cautious backing from a senior Iranian source who said the two sides were narrowing their differences. Yet Tehran's Supreme Leader simultaneously issued a directive barring the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles abroad, striking at the heart of Washington's core demand and leaving the nuclear impasse structurally unchanged

• The Strait of Hormuz added a new institutional dimension to the standoff. Iran formally established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, asserting regulatory jurisdiction over waters that the UAE and Oman regard as sovereign territory. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE responded via the IMO, warning commercial vessels to ignore Tehran's authority entirely. The episode underlined that even if a ceasefire on the nuclear question were reached, the maritime and economic architecture Iran is building around the strait will be difficult to dismantle quickly. On Friday, Israel added another layer of alarm, alleging Iran may be preparing a surprise attack on Gulf states

• On Capitol Hill, House Republican leaders pulled a scheduled war powers vote Thursday after it became clear they lacked the numbers to defeat it, pushing the question to early June. The episode reflects quietly growing congressional unease with a war now in its third month

• In Beijing, Putin left without the 'Power of Siberia 2' breakthrough Moscow had sought, though both sides acknowledged progress on the project's key parameters. The summit produced over 40 bilateral agreements and a reaffirmation of strategic alignment, but the pipeline impasse exposed the asymmetry at the heart of the relationship: Russia needs China considerably more than China needs Russia

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• Minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting confirmed the deepest divisions within the committee since 1992, with the vote splitting 8-4. Three members dissented against the retention of any easing bias in the policy statement, signalling preference for a more restrictive stance, while one voted for a cut. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, but markets have now priced in a better-than-even probability of a hike by December
• US commercial crude inventories fell approximately 7.9mio barrels in the week ending May 15, well above the 2.5mio-barrel forecast, as the country continues drawing down strategic reserves at an unprecedented pace. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) shed a further 10mio barrels over the same period, with the two most recent weekly draws among the largest ever recorded
• The eurozone growth outlook deteriorated further, with Brussels now projecting 0.9% expansion this year, down from 1.2% in November, as the energy shock pushes annual inflation toward 3% against a prior estimate of 1.9%. UK inflation offered a modest positive surprise, falling to 2.8% in April against consensus expectations of 3%, and down from 3.3% in March. Markets nonetheless expect the BOE to hike 25 basis points to 4% at its July meeting, though the central bank remains cautious given rising unemployment, which reached 5% in the three months to March
• China's economy lost momentum in April across all three major demand indicators. Retail sales grew just 0.2% YoY, the weakest reading since December 2022 and far below the 2% forecast. Industrial output slowed to 4.1% from 5.7% in March, while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the year to date against expectations for equivalent growth
• Japan moved in the opposite direction: GDP rose 2.1% annualised in Q1, ahead of the 1.7% consensus, driven by resilient consumption and a surge in exports. Core inflation eased more than expected to 1.4% in April, its lowest since March 2022, which may reduce pressure on the BoJ to tighten in the near term.
• The IEA's May oil market report provided the starkest framing of the supply situation: cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers now exceed 1 billion barrels, with more than 14mio barrels per day shut in, while observed global inventories drew down by 250mio barrels across March and April. The agency has warned that markets could enter a critical supply threshold as early as July or August if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Australia added to the supply-side anxiety, announcing it will reserve 20% of its LNG production for domestic consumption from mid-2027

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter reporting revenue of $81.6bn, up 85% year on year and 20% sequentially, beating consensus by $2.8bn. Data Center revenue reached a record $75.2bn, up 92% year on year, with EPS of $1.87 against an estimate of $1.76. Gross margins held at 75%, confirming that pricing power remains intact even as Blackwell scales into full production. The forward guidance was equally striking. Q2 revenue guidance of $91bn came in more than $4bn above analyst expectations, and crucially, it assumes zero contribution from China. The buried story was capital returns. The quarterly dividend was raised from $0.01 to $0.25 per share, a 25-fold increase, alongside a new $80bn share repurchase authorisation with no expiration, on top of the $38.5bn already remaining. Total capital returned to shareholders in Q1 alone was a record $20bn

• Shares of Lenovo surged 19.32% on Friday after the company reported strong revenue growth driven by its AI business. Quarterly group revenue rose 27% YoY to $21.6bn, marking the firm's fastest growth rate in five years. AI-related revenue was the standout performer, surging 84% during the quarter and accounting for more than one-third of total group revenue. Lenovo also retained its position as the world's leading PC vendor during the quarter, with global market share reaching 24.4%

• Take-Two confirmed what its investors have been waiting years to hear: Grand Theft Auto VI launches November 19, 2026. The date is locked, the marketing campaign starts this summer, and management is calling FY2027 a 'breakout year.' Full-year net bookings guidance of $8.0-8.2bn implies roughly 20% growth over FY2026, driven almost entirely by the launch.The quarterly numbers were fine: net bookings beat the top of guidance, EPS came in well above estimates, and the full-year loss narrowed sharply. None of that matters much. This is a one-game thesis, and the game now has a date. Morgan Stanley expects 40 million copies sold in the launch fiscal year alone. The only caveat worth noting is that the FY2027 guidance came in roughly $1bn below analyst consensus, suggesting either characteristic conservatism from a management team that has consistently under-promised, or genuine caution about the consumer backdrop. Given the track record, the market gave them the benefit of the doubt
• After Ubisoft forecast further losses for the upcoming financial year, its shares plunged 14%, extending a YTD decline of 38%.  In its annual results released on Wednesday, the group projected first-quarter net bookings of €250mio, well below the €285.5mio expected by analysts.  It also forecast full-year net bookings to decline by a high single-digit percentage. Amid ongoing restructuring efforts, the French gaming giant reported a record net loss of €1.47bn for fiscal year 2025 - 2026 and expects a challenging 2026 - 2027 fiscal year, before a strong rebound anticipated from 2027 - 2028 onwards

• Target delivered a strong Q1, with EPS of $1.71 beating the $1.46 consensus and net sales of $25.4bn coming in approximately $0.74bn ahead of forecasts, up 6.7% year on year. Growth was broad-based across all six core merchandising categories and all sales channels, with comparable sales up 5.6% on a 4.4% rise in traffic. Management raised its full-year net sales growth outlook to around 4%. The stock nonetheless fell nearly 5% in premarket, with investors focused on rising costs and margin compression rather than the headline beat, and questioning whether Q1's momentum is sustainable through the year
• Lowe's reported revenue of $23.08bn, beating estimates of $22.97bn, with adjusted EPS of $3.03 exceeding the $2.97 consensus. However, the headline 10% revenue growth was largely acquisition-driven, following the integration of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group. Underlying comparable sales grew just 0.6%, reflecting continued weakness in DIY discretionary spending despite a solid spring season and 15.5% online growth. Full-year guidance was reaffirmed

• Alibaba unveiled its new AI chip, the Zhenwu M890, described as three times more powerful than its predecessor, alongside a roadmap for two successor chips planned for 2027 and 2028. The initiative underscores China's drive to build domestic AI semiconductor capability as US export restrictions on advanced processors tighten
• AMD unveiled a plan to invest more than $10bn in Taiwan's semiconductor and AI ecosystem to advance chip production and performance
• Blackstone will invest $5bn in equity capital into a new AI infrastructure company alongside Google, using Google's tensor processing units. The first 500 megawatts of computing capacity is expected online by 2027
• Nvidia's strong results sparked a sharp rally in SoftBank Group shares, which closed 19.85% higher on Thursday after five consecutive sessions of declines, adding over $61bn in market value over two days, reflecting its close ties to the AI boom through its stakes in Arm Holdings and OpenAI
• Bloom Energy announced a partnership with European AI cloud provider Nebius to deploy fuel cell technology at US data centers, addressing power constraints in the AI infrastructure buildout. Bloom Energy will receive up to $2.6bn in service fees under the agreement, providing approximately 250 megawatts of guaranteed capacity
• The US Department of Commerce announced $2bn in CHIPS Act incentives for nine quantum computing companies, with the government taking minority equity stakes in each recipient. IBM received the largest allocation of $1bn to establish Anderon, America's first pure-play quantum wafer foundry, headquartered in Albany, New York, with IBM matching the award with $1bn of its own capital. IBM shares surged 12.4% on the news

• Sweden announced it will order four frigates from France's Naval Group in a deal valued at approximately $4.25bn, tripling its air defense capacity and marking the country's largest defense commitment since the 1980s. Saab, which lost the primary contract to Naval Group in competition with its Babcock joint bid, is expected to supply radar and weapons systems for the vessels at the Swedish government's request.
• Stellantis unveiled a €60bn investment plan, with 60% directed toward its automotive brand portfolio, particularly in North America where it targets a 35% increase in sales by 2030 through the launch of more than 60 new vehicles and the refresh of 50 existing models. The company targets positive free cash flow by 2028

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 26.05: US Consumer Confidence (MAY)
• 27.05: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• 28.05: US Core PCE  (APR), US Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR), US Q1 GDP (Revision), US Personal Income and Spending MoM (APR)
• 29.05: Japan Consumer Confidence (MAU), France / Italy / Germany Inflation Rate YoY (MAY), Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q1) and QoQ (Q1)

Chart of the Week

Flip this Chart Upside Down??

From the two charts below and interesting narrative emerges.

As recently as April 20, the rates market was a conventional post-tightening story. The implied overnight rate was drifting lower from 3.65%, with markets pricing in close to one full cut by mid-2027. The orange bars were uniformly negative throughout the forward curve, reflecting a broad consensus that the Fed's next move would be a reduction in rates.

By May 20, that picture had been completely inverted. The implied overnight rate now rises from 3.65% to above 4.0% by early 2027, with markets pricing in approximately 1.5 hikes over the same horizon. The orange bars have flipped entirely from negative to positive, with the peak hike expectation sitting at around 1.6 by the April-May 2027 window before modest easing is priced in thereafter.

In the space of a single month, the market has repriced the Fed from a cutting cycle to a hiking cycle. The catalyst is not a mystery. The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption have driven energy inflation, which is feeding into broader price pressures. The FOMC minutes released this week confirmed the internal fractures, with the committee splitting 8-4 and three members opposing any retention of an easing bias. Markets have drawn their own conclusions: if the conflict persists, the Fed's next move is more likely to be a hike than a cut.

For portfolio positioning, the reversal matters considerably. Duration is under renewed pressure, credit spreads could face a more challenging backdrop, and the growth-rate-sensitive parts of the equity market are contending with a rates environment that looked very different just thirty days ago.