An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week Kevin Warsh promised a 'regime change', only this one was at the Fed, the S&P is up 0.4% and the Nasdaq is up 1.4%. Europe was down -2.9% The Nikkei was up 2.1% and China’s mainland market was up 0.9%
• The US 10-year yield began the week broadly unchanged at 4.279%, following a volatile weekend in which Iran reopened and then closed the Strait of Hormuz. Yields moved higher on Tuesday, reaching 4.316%, after Iran dismissed the peace talks outright; the upward pressure persisted through the week's end, the 10-year climbed further to around 4.353%, as mutual accusations of ceasefire violations and reciprocal seizures of container ships in the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation fears.At the time of writing we are back at 4.302%
• Brent crude trades at $104.8/bbl, up 14% after last week's sharp dip. The ceasefire extension announced on Tuesday provided limited relief; the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained by both sides, reducing the likelihood that any truce translates into meaningfully higher oil exports through the chokepoint
• Gold ended the week 2.2% lower at $4'724, on track for its first weekly loss after four consecutive weeks of gains. The weakness reflects surging oil prices feeding inflation concerns and expectations of sustained higher rates. Silver fell 5.6% to $76.33.
• The dollar index stood at 98.57 essentially flat on the week. The yen extended its losing streak, heading for a fifth consecutive day of losses against the dollar and settling at 159.37
• Bitcoin briefly traded through $79'000 earlier in the week before easing back to around $77'700, still holding at a level that suggests resilient demand,  alongside a degree of risk appetite that has proved surprisingly durable in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Only hours after reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran closed it again after the US chose to maintain its naval blockade pending a final agreement
• IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the world is now facing the greatest threat to its energy security in history; the conflict has disrupted approximately 13 million barrels of oil per day, surpassing both 1970s oil shocks combined
• During the week, the US submitted a draft set of deal points to Iran via Pakistani intermediaries, reviving the prospect of a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The path remains difficult: Iran accuses the US of repeated ceasefire violations, including the seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel, the naval blockade of Iranian ports, and delays in implementing the truce in Lebanon. The two sides also remain deeply divided on the nuclear issue
• Despite a week of persistently high tensions, the sole diplomatic advance came on Tuesday, when Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension, pending a unified Iranian proposal to end the conflict; the US blockade remains in place. Iran maintains it will not reopen the Strait until the blockade is lifted. The war has cost the US between $28bn and $35bn to date according to the New York Times
• The initial 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire failed to contain hostilities, with strikes continuing from both sides. A second round of talks at the White House on Thursday between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors concluded with Trump announcing a three-week extension of the truce. The agreement is fragile; Hezbollah was not party to the talks, called the ceasefire 'meaningless,' and exchanged fire with Israel within hours of the announcement

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing as Trump's nominee for Fed Chair. Facing pointed scepticism from Democratic senators, he repeatedly insisted that any monetary policy decisions he would make would be independent of White House influence. He also argued that price stability must remain the Fed's core mission without compromise. On inflation measurement, Warsh said he would prefer the Fed adopt a trimmed mean rather than the core PCE index. The logic is to strip out extreme price shocks and better capture the underlying inflation trend;some economists warned that the change may not work as intended
• Beijing's campaign to internationalise the yuan is gaining ground: Ecobank, a Pan-African banking conglomerate, is in talks with the Bank of China to enable clients to settle transactions directly in yuan by year-end, bypassing the dollar entirely. This is consistent with a broader trend; in November, South Africa's Standard Bank announced it would adopt the yuan as a reference currency for clients via China's cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS). Both developments reflect the deepening commercial relationship between Africa and China and growing momentum behind non-dollar trade corridors
• Japan's core CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year in March, up from 1.6% in February but remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a second consecutive month. With surging oil prices feeding through supply chains, inflation is widely expected to accelerate above target in the coming months, complicating the BoJ's already delicate policy path
• Private sector activity in the Eurozone contracted in April for the first time in 16 months, as the war's economic costs intensified. S&P Global's flash composite PMI fell to 48.6 from 50.7 in March, well below the consensus forecast of 50.1 and a 17-month low. The services sector was hardest hit, with its index dropping to 47.4, the lowest in over five years; manufacturing, by contrast, rose to 52.2, in part reflecting inventory front-loading ahead of anticipated supply shortages. Input cost inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since 2022
• UK CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year in March, up from 3.0% in February, with the rise driven primarily by energy and fuel price pressures stemming from the conflict
• The German government halved its 2026 growth forecast, from 1.0% to 0.5%, as the energy shock continues to weigh disproportionately on an economy heavily exposed to imported energy inputs

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Tesla beat Q1 earnings estimates but missed on revenue and issued higher-than-expected spending guidance. The company confirmed plans to launch lower-cost Model Y and Model 3 variants amid intensifying competition
• IBM beat on both revenue and earnings in Q1  but shares fell 9% after the company declined to raise its full-year guidance, disappointing a market that had positioned for an upgrade
• SAP shares surged on Friday after reporting a nearly 17% increase in operating profit and a 19% jump in cloud revenue in its latest quarter.
• Intel surged 27% in pre-market trading on Friday after reporting Q1 earnings that beat expectations and issuing an upbeat Q2 forecast.
• Boeing reported a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss of 20 cents per share, against an anticipated loss of 83 cents. Revenue reached $22.22bn versus a $21.78bn consensus. The company reiterated its expectation for 737 Max 7 and Max 10 certification this year, with deliveries beginning in 2027
• American Express beat Q1 expectations, reporting EPS of $4.28 (consensus: $4.00) and revenue of $18.9bn (consensus: $18.6bn), up 10% year-on-year, driven by higher spend per card, balance growth, and robust fee income
• Procter & Gamble beat Q1 estimates with revenue of $21.24bn (consensus: $20.5bn) and adjusted EPS of $1.59 (consensus: $1.56). Volume grew for the first time in a year, driven by a 7% rise in sales. Shares rose approximately 4% in pre-market trading
• Blackstone raised $68.5bn in new assets in Q1 and approximately $250bn over the past twelve months, beating analyst expectations even as broader private markets fundraising slows. The strong inflows contrast with weaker segment performance: private credit delivered zero net returns after fees on average in the quarter, and the large bank loan portfolio fell 1.4%. Shares slipped about 4% in early trading on Thursday

• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan's largest defence company, saw its shares climb nearly 4% after securing the country's first-ever warship export deal with the Royal Australian Navy, with the first vessel scheduled for delivery in 2029. The deal comes as Japan prepares to ease its restrictions on arms exports, marking a broader shift in its defence posture
• Eli Lilly has acquired clinical-stage biotechnology company Kelonia in a deal worth up to $7bn. The acquisition is aimed at securing the KLN-1010 programme, which represents a potentially transformative approach to treating multiple myeloma
• Project Prometheus, Jeff Bezos' physical AI lab focused on applying AI to understand the physical world and transform engineering and manufacturing, has closed a $10bn funding round valuing the company at approximately $38bn. JPMorgan and BlackRock are among the investors
• SpaceX has secured an option to acquire coding startup Cursor for $60bn later this year, or alternatively pay $10bn for the ongoing collaboration. The two companies are working together to build what they describe as the world's best coding and knowledge-work AI, combining Cursor's product with SpaceX's Colossus supercomputer
• Amazon announced it will invest up to $25bn in Anthropic on top of the $8bn it has already committed since 2023.The structure involves $5bn effective immediately, with up to a further $20bn tied to commercial milestones. Anthropic, in turn, committed to spending over $100bn on Amazon Web Services over the next decade, and has named AWS its primary cloud and training partner
• DeepSeek launched preview versions of DeepSeek-V4-Pro and DeepSeek-V4-Flash on Friday. The Pro version features performances that DeepSeek claims surpasses all rival open-source models on maths and coding, while falling marginally short of GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro among closed frontier models. Both Chinese models are open-source under MIT licence
• The Swiss government partially softened its capital requirements proposal for UBS, easing the treatment of intangible assets in line with EU standards, but held firm on the core measure requiring full capital backing for UBS's foreign subsidiaries; the bank, which estimates the total additional CET1 requirement at $37bn when combined with post-Credit Suisse obligations, called the package 'extreme' and the battle now moves to parliament
• Apple announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on 1 September 2026, transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman; he will be succeeded by John Ternus, currently Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, who has spent his entire career at Apple

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 27.04: Germany Confidence (MAY)
• 28.04: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, US Consumer Confidence (APR)
• 29.04:  Fed Rate Decision , German CPI (APR), US Durable Goods Orders (MAR)
• 30.04: BoE, ECB Rate Decision, Chinese Manufacturing, Non-Manuf and Composite PMIs (APR), ECB 1 and 3Y CPI expectations,  US Personal Income & Spending (MAR), US GDP Q1, US Core PCE (MAR)
• 01.05: US ISM Manufacturing & Prices (APR)

Earnings

• 27.04: Advantest, Verizon
• 28.04: Robinhood, Seagate, Teradyne, Visa, Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Starbucks General Motors, UPS, Airbus, BP, Barclays, Vale, Corning, Tmobile
• 29.04: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, C, Qualcomm, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Abbvie,TotalEnergie SE, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, CNOOC, 
• April 30th: Apple,Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb,  ConocoPhillips, Samsung Electronics, BNP Paribas
• 01.05:  Exxon Mobil, Chevron

Chart of the Week

Someone didn't get the memo

The three panels tell three different stories about the same war. The S&P 500 has not only recovered but pushed through its pre-war level and beyond; equities are effectively pricing the conflict as a resolved or resolving event. Oil tells the opposite story: Brent remains roughly 30–35% above its pre-war level despite the partial Hormuz relief rally, reflecting the market's judgment that supply disruption is structural, not transitory. And US 10-year yields sit above their pre-war baseline too, with the spike from the inflationary oil shock only partially unwound.

The disconnect is the point. Equities are trading on the ceasefire narrative. Oil and bonds are trading on the physical reality: the strait is not reliably open, European inventories are drawing down, and the inflation impulse from sustained $90+ crude has not been absorbed. One of these three markets is wrong, or at minimum, pricing a very different probability distribution of outcomes.

The most uncomfortable read is that equities are right on the direction but wrong on the timing; a genuine resolution does get you back to pre-war levels on oil and eventually lower yields, but the path there involves more volatility than current equity pricing implies.

Source: The Financial Times, LSEG