An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week a doomsday futuristic note by Citrini rocked markets, the S&P is down -0.8% and the Nasdaq is down -1.0% Europe was up 0.1%. The Nikkei was up 2.4%, China’s mainland market was flat
• US Treasury yields trended lower on the long end, with the 10-year yield sliding to 3.97% by Friday, down from about 4.08 % at the start of the week, marking its lowest level in several months as investors sought safety amid risk-off sentiment in markets. Shorter 2Y rates also eased but by less to 3.39%
• Brent was caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical fear on the upside and oversupply concerns on the downside keeping it range-bound. Brent trades at $72.48 on Friday, up 1% on the week
• Gold continued its multi-week uptrend. The move this week was driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tension around the US-Iran situation and broader macro and tariff uncertainty, which kept investors in gold as protection, while softer real yields and some Fed-cut speculation also supported prices. Gold’s resilience was offset only slightly by progress in negotiations that tempered extreme fear, leaving the metal with a solid weekly gain of 2.4%. Gold trades at $5’229 at the time of writing

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• In a marathon State of the Union address, president Trump blamed Democrats for Americans' cost-of-living struggles while offering little in the way of new economic policy. One concrete announcement stood out: his ‘Ratepayer Protection Pledge,’ under which tech companies would be obligated to cover their own power needs,  and any resulting electricity price increases for consumers,  as AI data centers place ever-greater strain on the grid. Major tech firms including Microsoft and Anthropic are set to formally sign the pledge at a White House meeting on March 4. Energy experts are skeptical, however, arguing that electricity pricing is ultimately determined by utilities and state regulators, not tech companies, making the pledge difficult to enforce
• Following last week’s Supreme Court tariff rebuttal,  president Trump retaliated by announcing a new global customs surcharge of 10%, which he subsequently raised to 15%. Questions remain regarding the impact of this setback, particularly with respect to trade agreements that had already been negotiated. The extent of the upcoming reimbursements is also uncertain. The 10-year yield on US government bonds eased noticeably to 4.03%, compared to 4.08% at Friday's close
• Iran oil exports out of Kharg Island reached nearly 20.1 million barrels last week, almost three times more than during the same period in January, as the US grows its Armada in the Middle East. A possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt approximately 20% of global supply, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. OPEC+ could increase its production at its March 1st meeting in anticipation of possible strikes

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• An alarming docu-fiction piece by Citrini research out this week reignited fears that AI will wipe out a large portion of the stock market capitalization of leading technology players or force these companies to change their way of operating. The latest victim of these fears, IBM fell by more than 13% on Monday, weighed down by the launch of a new AI tool developed by Anthropic, which is now competing with IBM’s near monopoly on the COBOL programming language
• Anthropic is expanding the use of its Claude LLM with new AI tools for its Claude Cowork software, aimed at automating and customising tasks in HR, investment banking, and design. It also rolled out Claude Code Security, triggering a widespread market selloff in the cybersecurity sector
• A redemption halt at Blue Owl last week exposed structural liquidity fears in private credit, triggering sector wide share weakness and raising fresh questions about how illiquid credit strategies behave under stress. Shares of Apollo Global Management, Blackstone and Ares Management sold off meaningfully as investors re-priced the risk of private credit exposures and redemption pressures at their own vehicles

• Nvidia delivered another blowout quarter, with revenue surging 73% to a record $68.1bn, driven by insatiable demand for its Blackwell AI chips and a 250% jump in networking equipment sales to $11bn. Jensen Huang described demand for compute power as growing ‘exponentially’ as agentic AI takes hold. Forward guidance also topped expectations, with Q1 revenue forecast at up to $79.6bn. The results may ease lingering fears about a slowdown in hyperscaler AI spending. Two clouds on the horizon: a broader memory chip shortage, which Huang downplayed as a profitability threat, and zero revenue from China following restrictions on H200 chip sales, with no clarity on when, or whether, shipments will resume.
• Salesforce posted a solid Q4, earnings of $3.81 per share and revenue up 12% to $11.2bn, but it was the full-year outlook that disappointed. Its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast of $46bn, implying 10-11% growth, fell short of analyst expectations, sending shares down 4% after hours. The silver lining: Agentforce, its agentic AI platform, is gaining traction fast, with recurring revenue up 169% year-on-year to $800 million, and CEO Benioff raised the company's 2030 revenue target to $63bn. Near-term guidance for Q1 was above consensus on both earnings and revenue
• Meta has signed a multiyear, $100+bn deal with AMD to purchase six gigawatts of its new MI450 AI chips, a direct challenge to Nvidia's dominance. In exchange, Meta will receive a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares (approx.10% of the company). The MI450's modular ‘chiplet’ architecture makes it more customisable than previous AMD chips. The deal mirrors AMD's October agreement with OpenAI, and signals AMD's strategy of locking in major customers for the long term
• Coreweave shares fell after reporting a larger-than-expected loss and capital expenditures for 2026 of between $30 and $35bn, well above expectations. Q4 loss amounts to 89 cents per share. The company specialises in GPU-based infrastructure, primarily designed to power AI and machine learning workloads

• Novo Nordisk's new weight-loss drug CagriSema disappointed in trials, leading to a sharp drop in the company's share price this week (-21%) and calls to diversify its business beyond diabetes and obesity
• First Solar has forecast annual revenues below expectations, citing permit delays and a tariff impact of $125 to $135 million in 2026. Net profit for Q4 stands at $4.84 per share, compared to $3.65 a year earlier
• Netflix withdrew from the race to acquire Warner Bros., paving the way for Paramount's $111bn bid. Netflix's share price jumped on the news, while Warner fell back

Chart of the Week

R*-aised from the Dead

The chart below tracks r*, the neutral real interest rate ,  across the US and major advanced economies. Think of it as the economy's natural cruising speed for interest rates: too far above it and policy is choking growth, too far below and you risk overheating the economy.

For three decades, that cruising speed fell relentlessly, from around 3% in the early 1990s to below zero after the financial crisis, as demography, globalisation and an appetite for ‘safe’ assets pushed real rates lower. Then Covid happened. Since 2019, r* has risen by roughly 1% in both the US and globally. That might sound modest, but after years of near-zero readings, it's a meaningful shift.

So what’s changed? The Liberty Street paper this chart was taken from argues that about a third of the rise traces back to government bonds simply becoming less desirable: as sovereign debt has ballooned across advanced economies, the premium investors once paid for the safety of holding it has eroded. The authors suggest that remaining missing two-thirds may be attributable to structural forces at work; AI lifting the productive capacity of the economy, demographics, defence spending keeping fiscal deficits wide and savings scarce, and a deglobalising world reintroducing supply-side inflation that the previous three decades had conveniently suppressed. None of these forces look like they're going away quickly, which is why the recent rise in r* may prove durable.

It has implications on how we invest; the cheap-money era that turbocharged leverage, duration and growth-at-any-price strategies is behind us. Look for real margins, low refinancing risk and pricing power. Avoid anything that needs rates to fall aggressively to justify its valuation. In fixed income, manage duration actively; and treat gold not as a contradiction in a world of higher real rates, but as a hedge against the fiscal excess that is causing them. It is an environment that rewards selectivity once again, and while exposure to broad indices mean you own the whole messy transition, active management lets you try and pick your winners. Shifting deliberately and progressively rather than overnight is likely the prudent path.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, The Post-Pandemic Global R*

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/the-post-pandemic-global-r/