Weekly Notes: 24.08-28.08

Sabrina Tazi-Riffi | Août 29, 2026 | 7 min read

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An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

    • In the week Stanley Druckenmiller turned on his own protégé (with a little help from AI), the S&P500 rose +0.9% and the Nasdaq increased +1.9%. Europe was up +0.5%, the Nikkei rose 0.6% and China’s mainland market dropped -0.2%
    • The week began with a sharp decline in the US 10Y yield, which fell from 4.72% to as low as 4.621%, following reports that the US Treasury could use its $1tn General Account to support plans to ramp up government bond purchases. Yields gradually moved higher with the 10Y yield ending the week at 4.70%
    • After the US ruled out military strikes against Iran in favour of economic sanctions, Brent crude fell sharply, declining from $93.7/bbl on Monday to as low as $85.7 on Tuesday. Oil prices subsequently recovered to as high as $90.2 following the White House’s denial that talks between the US and Iran were underway. Nevertheless, Brent remained on track for a weekly decline, with futures ending the week down to $89.3/bbl
    • The Canadian dollar fell following the breakdown of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa. The talks ended with the US imposing 50% tariffs on around $20bn worth of Canadian imports, while Canada announced retaliatory tariffs effective Sept. 8
    • Gold climbed to its highest level in over three months on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and the Treasury’s bond buyback announcement. That rally reversed sharply after Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that the Fed still had « work to do » on inflation, pulling bullion down 3% to below $4’500

      Geopolitical Landscape

      A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

      • The week began with the Trump administration unveiling a plan to further isolate Iran’s economy, dubbed ‘Operation Economic Outcast’, while threatening countries that continue to do business with Tehran. Even as the US pivots toward economic sanctions rather than military strikes to pressure Iran, an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week showed how quickly military escalation could return
      • One day after Bessent said the US would sanction any entity doing business with Iran, Tehran’s ties with its regional partners strengthened further. Iran and Oman reached a deal to share control of the Strait of Hormuz and its revenues. However, Iran warned that the waterway would not fully reopen until the US fulfills its commitments under the interim peace framework signed in June
      • In parallel, new partnerships are emerging. First, the French President, UK Prime Minister and German Chancellor co-chaired a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, aimed at strengthening support for Ukraine and increasing pressure on Russia. Second, President Trump submitted a proposed US – Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Congress.
      • Separately, geopolitical tensions also escalated elsewhere. Moscow warned it could strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine in response to Kyiv’s attacks on Russian territory using British-supplied long-range cruise missiles.
      • And US – Canada relations continued to deteriorate following the failure of trade talks, with Trump signing an executive order to rename Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’

      Macroeconomic Developments

      Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

      • Stanley Druckenmiller turned on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Wall Street Journal op-ed; he warned that the Treasury’s long-dated bond buybacks are muzzling the market’s voice. He criticised the buybacks as an attempt to override a market signal rather than address its cause. With US debt now past 40tn and the 2026 deficit tracking toward 2tn, the concern is that suppressing the yield rise treats the symptom while leaving the fiscal problem underneath unaddressed

       

      • US core PCE came in in line with expectations in July, rising 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. Meanwhile, consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August from 90.2, its lowest level since January
      • Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack called for higher interest rates, arguing that the Fed remains too far from its inflation target
      • In China, industrial profit growth slowed to 11.2% YoY in July, its weakest pace this year
      • South Korea’s central bank hiked rates by 25bp to 3%, in line with expectations
      • Singapore inflation came in below expectations, with consumer prices rising 2.2% YoY last month, versus the 2.3% forecast. CPI fell 0.2% MoM, while core inflation rose to 2%, below the 2.2% expected
      • New Delhi’s efforts to attract foreign capital through a dedicated scheme have helped drive $73bn in inflows over the past 11 weeks, supported by incentives for non-resident Indians to place foreign-currency deposits with Indian banks

      Corporate & Sector Highlights

      Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

      • Nvidia’s guidance reassured investors amid concerns over whether AI demand can sustainably support the massive capex required to build out infrastructure. The company expects 70% revenue growth for FY2028, well above analysts’ 44% forecast. Following blockbuster earnings, with revenue reaching $96.22bn vs. $92.17bn expected, Nvidia has reportedly agreed to acquire open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9bn
      • As AI adoption accelerates, so does cybersecurity spending. CrowdStrike and Okta both beat quarterly estimates and raised their guidance, benefiting from growing concerns around AI-agent threats
      • Salesforce reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and expanded its partnership with Anthropic. The stock surged 22%, marking its second-best day ever. Revenue came in at $11.35bn vs $11.32bn expected, while adjusted EPS reached $5.90 vs $3.27 expected
      • Meta and a coalition of state attorneys general settled a major federal case, with the Big Tech giant agreeing to pay $16.7bn. Meta has been accused of misrepresenting the extent of mental health harms caused by its apps amongst children
      • Amid a wave of executive departures at OpenAI, the AI lab’s head of data centers also left the company, potentially complicating efforts to justify its $852bn valuation ahead of an expected IPO
      • SpaceX plans to build a $100bn spaceport in Louisiana, which is expected to become the company’s main launch site for Starship once completed.
      • Alibaba priced a $10.2bn placement of newly issued shares to non-US investors, with the proceeds earmarked for further investments in its full-stack AI capabilities
      • More than 100 companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and AMD, signed a letter urging policymakers to strengthen cybersecurity amid the rapid adoption of AI
      • HP unveiled a partnership with Huawei to license certain WiFi patents from the Chinese telecoms giant. The deal signals growing adoption of Huawei’s technology outside China, despite the US blacklisting the company in 2019
      • Following reports that Chinese firms may have accessed Nvidia chips despite US export restrictions, President Trump is reportedly considering a fresh round of tariffs on semiconductors

                Looking Ahead

                A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

                • August 31st: China Manuf. and Non-Manuf PMI (AUG), India GDP (Q2)
                • September 1st: US, UK, and EU Manuf PMI (AUG), US Job Openings (JUL), Eurozone CPI (AUG)
                • September 2nd: Fed Beige Book, Bank of Canada Rate decision
                • September 3rd: US, UK, China and EU Services PMI (AUG), EU, China and UK Composite PMI (AUG)
                • September 4th: US Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Report (AUG)

                Earnings

                Week of August 31st

                • 01.09: Palo Alto Networks
                • 02.09: Broadcom, Snowflake
                • 03.09: Dell Tech, Ciena Corp, DocuSign, Campbell’s

                Chart of the Week

                More than Inflation (sing to the tune of ‘More than a feeling’)

                From September 2025 through February 2026, 10-Year US Treasury yields and the 5y5y inflation swap forward (the market’s view of expected inflation five to ten years out) moved together; both drifted in the 3.9 to 4.3% and 2.3 to 2.5% ranges respectively.

                Starting in March, that relationship seems to break down. The 10-year yield begins a sustained climb from about 4.0% to nearly 4.7%. Over the same window, the 5y5y inflation swap forward is essentially flat to slightly higher, remaining in a narrow 2.3 to 2.45% band. In other words, long-term inflation expectations are not what’s driving the selloff in long bonds.

                That leaves supply and term premium as the more likely drivers.

                • Treasury issuance at the long end remains heavy to fund ongoing US deficits, and it now competes with a new source of demand for capital: AI hyperscalers are funding data center buildouts by heavily tapping into public debt markets. More borrowers are competing for long-duration financing just as the Fed has stepped back through quantitative tightening. More supply against similar demand pushes yields up mechanically, regardless of inflation expectations.
                • A less dovish expected Fed path adds to the term premium case. At the start of the year, markets had priced a steady path of rate cuts through 2026 on the assumption that inflation was contained and growth was slowing. That path has since reversed, with markets now pricing tightening rather than further easing, as growth and labor data have held up better than expected. When the market expects the Fed to hold or raise short rates rather than cut, investors demand more compensation to hold long-dated bonds instead of rolling over shorter maturities at those higher rates, which shows up as rising term premium rather than higher inflation compensation.

                This has the makings of a structural supply story, not a passing inflation scare, and it argues for keeping duration low. Between deficit financing and hyperscaler issuance, the long end faces a persistent buyer problem that quantitative tightening only compounds.

                Source: Bloomberg

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