An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week royalty elegantly schooled the republic on its own founding values, the S&P is up +1.1% and the Nasdaq is up +1.2%. Europe was up +0.2%. The Nikkei was up 0.6% and China's mainland market was up +0.4%
• The US 10Y yield began the week on an upward trend, reaching 4.338%, as investors looked ahead to the Fed's monetary policy meeting. On Tuesday, it continued to rise steadily as hopes of a successful US-Iran peace deal faded. On Wednesday, the Fed left rates unchanged but with notable internal dissent, pushing the yield higher to 4.43%, as investors feared a possible rise in interest rates ahead. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with the yield falling more than 5 basis points to 4.38% following weaker-than-expected GDP and core PCE data, as well as a decline in oil prices after recent record highs. The US 10Y yield ended the week broadly flat at 4.37%, as investors digested the latest growth and inflation data
• Brent crude registered its highest level since mid-2022: as Trump reportedly considered military operations against Iran and refused to rule out a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports, Brent crude exceeded $126 per barrel. However, it quickly retreated below $110 after reports that Iran and the US continued to communicate about a draft peace agreement
• Gold was on track for its second straight weekly loss of 1.3%, as inflation concerns dampened expectations for rate cuts, bullion trades at $4'642
• Bitcoin ended the week up +1% at $78'413. Ethereum was down -0.6% at $2'305

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• A day after scrapping the Pakistan talks, Pres. Trump pivoted to the phone, calling it equally effective. He struck an optimistic note, suggesting a deal was close. By Wednesday, the tone had shifted: a Truth Social post accompanied by an AI image of Trump brandishing a gun made clear patience was running out, as Iran refused to move on its nuclear programme. The blockade stays until there is a deal; discussions, the White House insisted, remain open 

• Meanwhile, the Pentagon briefed the President on fresh military options, including potential infrastructure strikes and a possible seizure of the strait itself. An international coalition to manage the waterway remains on the table; US embassies have been tasked with building one

• Iran tabled a new proposal on Monday, focused on reopening the strait and stepping back from the brink. Trump convened his national security team. The verdict: insufficient. Washington's core conditions, above all on the nuclear file, remain unmet

• Goldman Sachs has lifted its Q4 Brent estimate to $90 from $80, and pushed its timeline for normalised Gulf exports from mid-May to end of June
• Iran banned steel exports on Tuesday, formalising what was already a reality: its two largest producers have been offline since early April. Between late March 2025 and end of December 2025, Iran exported approximately $6.04bn worth of steel
• Pete Hegseth spent two days on the Hill defending a $1.5tn Pentagon budget for 2027, the largest defence request in modern history. The hearings were as much a referendum on the Iran war as a budget exercise. On the same day, Congress ended the 76-day Department of Homeland Security shutdown, the longest in US history, restoring funding to most of the department while leaving ICE and CBP (Customs and Border Protection) budgets unresolved. Hundreds of thousands of employees had been working without pay guarantees; that chapter is now closed, the immigration standoff is not

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• The Fed held for a third consecutive meeting, as expected. What was not expected was the degree of internal fracture: three officials dissented against retaining an easing bias, the highest level of internal opposition since 1992. The message is clear; rate cuts are receding, not approaching
• The Eurozone is caught between a rock and a hard place;  Q1 growth came in at a meagre 0.1%, while April inflation jumped to 3% from 2.6% the prior month, itself already a sharp acceleration from 1.9% before that. The ECB held at 2% regardless, prioritising medium-term stability over the energy shock. The arithmetic is uncomfortable and the margin for error is thin
• The Bank of England quietly revised down its UK growth forecasts, from 0.9% to 0.7-0.8% for 2026 and from 1.5% to 0.8-1% for 2027, a steady erosion of expectations
• The Bank of Japan delivered the week's most hawkish signal. It held rates but three of nine board members voted to hike, a rare public split. More telling: its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 jumped from 1.9% to 2.8%, with food prices flagged as an upside risk. Tokyo is not done tightening
• The US economy grew at a 2% annualised rate in Q1, slightly below the 2.2% Wall Street had pencilled in, but solid given the headwinds. Tax cuts and AI investment are doing the heavy lifting. Core PCE rose 0.3% month on month and 3.2% year on year in March; headline PCE came in at 3.5% annually. Inflation is not cooperating
• China posted a 15.8% year-on-year jump in industrial profits in March, the fastest in six months, driven by equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors. Export growth of 14.7% in Q1 added to the picture. The second quarter will be harder; energy costs are rising and global demand is softening
• Ursula von der Leyen put a number on Europe's fossil fuel dependence: €27bn in additional import costs in just 60 days of conflict
• South Korea's KOSPI surged nearly 31% in April, its best monthly performance since January 1998. SK Hynix and Samsung rose 60% and 35% respectively, carried by AI enthusiasm. HSBC upgraded the market to neutral from underweight

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Alphabet surged nearly 7% after a clean beat. Revenue of $109.9bn topped the $107.2bn consensus; Google Cloud grew 63% year on year to $20bn, coming in $1.97bn ahead of expectations. Capex guidance for 2026 and 2027 was raised. The market liked all of it
• Microsoft beat on both revenue and earnings, with Azure and cloud services growing 40% year on year. No ambiguity in the numbers
• Amazon rose 4% on results that beat across the board. EPS of $2.78 nearly doubled the $1.64 expectation. Revenue of $181.5bn cleared the $177.3bn estimate. Capex of $44.2bn came in slightly above forecasts, but at this stage the market is reading heavy investment as a signal of confidence, not excess
• Meta beat on earnings but fell 6% after raising its full-year capex guidance to $125-145bn. The numbers were good; the spending ambition spooked investors. The question the market is now asking is not whether AI investment is justified, but when it pay
• Qualcomm jumped 13% on two pieces of news: adjusted EPS of $2.65 beat by $0.09, and the CEO confirmed the company will begin shipping data centre chips to a major hyperscaler before year end. For a company long associated with mobile, that second point matters more than the first
• Apple beat . EPS of $2.01 came in $0.06 ahead; revenue of $111.18bn cleared estimates by $1.52bn. Shares rose 2%. The footnote: hardware sales missed forecasts for the second time in three quarters

• Reddit grew revenue 69% year on year to $663m, beating estimates by $52m. EPS of $1.01 nearly doubled the $0.58 expectation. Guidance was optimistic. The stock jumped over 9% in extended trading
• Robinhood dropped 11% after missing on both revenue and profit. Crypto trading volumes collapsed 47% year on year as market volatility bit. Revenue of $623m missed by $105m
• Seagate surged 18% on a blowout quarter. Adjusted EPS of $4.10 against $3.48 expected; revenue of $3.11bn against $2.95bn. Year-on-year revenue growth of 44%. The data storage cycle is running hot

• Vale beat on EBITDA growth but missed on the absolute number. Pro forma EBITDA rose 21% year on year to $3.89bn, falling $0.22bn short of consensus. Net profit of $1.89bn rose 36% but missed the $2.05bn expectation. Higher iron ore and copper prices lifted the top line 14%; the bottom line disappointed regardless
• CNOOC was a direct beneficiary of the Iran war. Net profit rose 7.1%, revenue climbed 8.6% to 116.08bn yuan, and net production jumped 8.6% year on year. Higher prices, intensified extraction, strong results
• Exxon and Chevron both took refining hits from the Middle East war, with net income falling 45% and 36% respectively. Both beat Wall Street estimates regardless and rose roughly 1% in pre-market. Chevron's $1.41 adjusted EPS against $0.95 expected was its biggest earnings beat since October 2020, even as it missed on revenue by $3.49bn. War is bad for refiners; it is not yet bad for the stocks
• TotalEnergies and Repsol both rode the oil price surge. TotalEnergies posted a significant jump in quarterly profit, carried by higher crude and refined product prices since the conflict began. Repsol was more striking: net income of €929m in Q1, up 154% year on year. The Middle East war is painful for consumers and refiners; for upstream European oil majors, the numbers speak for themselves

• UBS profits jumped 80% year on year to $3bn, beating the $2.8bn estimate. Buybacks announced. Shares rose more than 5% despite a warning that net interest income next quarter will be broadly flat across wealth management and retail banking
• Visa posted revenues of $11.23bn, up 17% year on year and well ahead of the $10.7bn estimate. Adjusted EPS of $3.31 beat by $0.30. Payment volumes rose 9%

• Eli Lilly continued its extraordinary run. EPS of $8.55 rose 156% year on year and beat by $1.58. Revenue of $19.8bn grew 56% and cleared the $17.6bn estimate by $2.2bn. Full-year guidance was raised.
• Novartis delivered a mixed quarter. Revenue slipped 0.91% year on year to $13.11bn, squeezed by generic competition, with $4bn of patent expiry headwinds still to come on its three key products. Net profit rose 12.48% to $3.16bn, but EPS fell 9.84% to $1.65

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 05.05: RBA Interest Rate Decision (May), S&P Global Services PMI (Apr), US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Apr)
• 08.05: US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr), US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr), US Unemployment Rate (Apr), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (May)
• 09.05: Chinese Balance of Trade (Apr), Chinese Exports YoY (Apr), Chinese imports YoY (Apr)

Earnings

• 04.05: Palantir Technologies, On Semiconductor Corporation, Loews Corporation
• 05.05: AMD, HSBC Holdings, Arista Networks, Eaton Corporation, Shopify, Pfizer, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Duke Energy Corporation, AXA
• 06.05: Costco Wholesale Corporation, ARM Holdings, The Walt Disney Company, Novo Nordisk, , Equinor ASA,  Infineon Technologies AG, EOG Resources, 
• 07.05: Shell, Gilead Sciences, Fast Retailing, AirBnB,  Cloudflare

Chart of the Week

The Quota That Wasn't

The UAE's decision to leave OPEC was presented as a principled stand against production constraints holding back an ambitious producer. The chart is less flattering. For the better part of a decade, actual UAE output ran at or above its assigned quota; the cage, such as it was, sat largely empty. What the chart does show, with uncomfortable clarity, is that UAE production has collapsed to its lowest level in the entire dataset, not because of anything OPEC imposed, but because the Strait of Hormuz has made moving oil all but impossible.

The UAE is not leaving a cartel that was throttling it; it is leaving one it no longer needs, at precisely the moment it cannot export regardless. The more plausible reading is strategic: a deliberate signal of alignment with Washington at a moment of maximum geopolitical leverage, with one eye already on the post-war order and the freedom to open the taps the moment the strait reopens

Source: http://macromicro.me