An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week, Situational Awareness Fund promised foresight on AI’s future, then became a textbook example of situational unawareness as those same positions collapsed and the fund had to sell assets under pressure.
• The S&P slipped -0.44% and the Nasdaq lost 0.37%. Europe gained 0.55%, the Nikkei fell -1.23% and China’s mainland market dropped -1.38%.
• The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferred a 25 bp hike.
• Post-decision, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose toward about 4.70%, while the 30-year pushed above 5.2%—near levels last seen in 2007.
• The dollar index slipped about 0.3% to 101.07 after the Fed hold; EUR/USD rose ~0.4% to about 1.143, while USD/JPY eased to ~163.35 to finish the week below 160 (on a possible BoJ intervention).
• Oil remained geopolitically driven: Brent gained nearly 8% mid-week as Middle East fighting escalated; WTI settling near $85.50 on Friday.
• Gold firmed on a softer dollar and cooler monthly PCE, with August gold futures up about 0.8% to $4,096; spot silver lost 2.34% to $57.34/oz.
• Bitcoin lost about 4% to roughly $62,700.

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• U.S. Central Command reported a multi-hour wave of strikes on dozens of IRGC-linked targets after Iranian missile attacks on U.S. forces, raising the regional risk premium and keeping defense and energy volatility elevated.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to “punish the aggressor,” warned third countries aiding the U.S., and asserted “full control” of the Strait of Hormuz, direct transmission into oil supply security and tanker insurance costs.
• Shipping through Hormuz and adjacent routes remains disrupted by attacks and threats, sustaining a geopolitical oil premium even when prices dip on de-escalation headlines.
• Saudi Arabia’s proposal for a multinational naval coalition to protect vessels aims to stabilize Red Sea / Gulf logistics; any credible escort framework would ease freight and crude risk premia.
• The FOMC statement explicitly cited Middle East conflict as a source of elevated uncertainty surrounding the U.S. outlook, linking geopolitics to the policy reaction function.

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but three voters wanted an immediate hike.
• Headline US Q2 growth slowed to 1.5%, yet household and business demand held up. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE, which strips out food and energy) is still running about 3.3% year-on-year, cool enough month-to-month not to force an emergency hike, still too warm to declare victory.
• The Middle East conflict is again the main European macro risk via oil and gas. Higher energy costs threaten to re-ignite euro-area inflation and keep the ECB in “data-dependent, ready to tighten” mode even without a fresh meeting this week.
• European heatwaves and wildfires are adding to growth and fiscal costs across the continent, reinforcing a softer growth / stickier prices mix for European assets.
• Official chinese factory PMI slipped back below 50 in July (into contraction), ending a four-month expansion streak. Weak new orders point to soft domestic demand and a tougher second half unless Beijing steps up support, a headwind for global industrials and commodities.
• The Bank of Japan held rates at 1% but flagged that core inflation may run above 2% later this fiscal year on wages, oil, and a weak yen. Overnight yen support underscored official discomfort with FX weakness.
• Hormuz and Red Sea disruption remains a global inflation and supply-chain channel. Even when crude prices dip on de-escalation headlines, insurance costs and rerouting keep a risk premium in energy and freight.

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Microsoft: Cloud strength (Azure) and solid guidance offset heavy AI spending; the print helped lead Thursday’s tech rebound and reaffirmed mega-cap AI leadership.
• Amazon: AWS grew about 37% year-on-year, fastest since 2021, and full-year capex was lifted to roughly $220bn. Investors read it as proof AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating, not peaking.
• Apple: Results were overshadowed by cautious revenue guidance and supply constraints in Tim Cook’s final report before the CEO handoff,a reminder that hardware cycles and component shortages still matter beside the AI narrative.
• Meta: Post-earnings, several desks trimmed price targets even while staying constructive on AI monetisation, ceiling on the shares looks lower near term after soft guidance optics.
• Samsung Electronics: Record quarter on AI memory demand; Korean chip stocks later staged a sharp relief rally as U.S. cloud capex reassured the whole semiconductor complex.
• SK Hynix: Huge profit jump on AI chips, but an initial miss vs. expectations hit the stock before the broader AI rebound lifted Korean tech hard into week-end.
• European banks (UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered): Solid Q2 beats, with UBS wealth inflows and investment-banking recovery, Deutsche’s profit surprise, and Standard Chartered’s buyback.
• Shell: Best quarterly profit in four years as oil and gas prices firmed on the Iran conflict; buybacks continued, energy cash-flow story intact while geopolitics stays hot.

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 03.08: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI (Jul)
• 04.08: Japan BoJ minutes
• 05.08: Euro area final services & composite PMIs
• 06.08: China trade balance (Jul)
• 06.08: Euro area industrial production & retail sales
• 06.08: Japan household spending (Jun)
• 07.08: U.S. nonfarm payrolls & wages (Jul)

Earnings

03.08-07.08

• 03.08: Mitsubishi UFJ,Palantir, Berkshire
• 04.08: HSBC, Toyota, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, BP
• 04.08: SpaceX first earnings print
• 05.08: Eli Lilly, Sandisk, Glencore
• 06.08: Siemens
• 07.08: Allianz

Chart of the Week

The Fed went soft, so the Bond Vigilantes offered to finish the job

• At last Federal Reserve press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh struck a notably softer tone on inflation, and investors read it as a signal that the central bank may try to avoid further interest rate hikes altogether.
• The reaction was swift: the gap between short-term and long-term US Treasury yields widened by 14 basis points in a single session, US 30-year yield hits its highest level since 2007, and market-based inflation expectations ticked up 6 basis points.
• At the same time, US real yields, which had climbed 60 basis points since the Fed’s June meeting, dropped 7 basis points overnight, taking some of the wind out of the dollar’s sails.

Source: FT