An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week birthright citizenship survived to see America turn 250, the S&P was up +1.8% and  the Nasdaq increased +2.1%. Europe rose +3.1%, the Nikkei was up 0.6% and China's mainland market fell -0.5%
• June ended with Treasury yields trending higher, initially driven by stronger-than-expected US job openings for May. Momentum stalled after a softer-than-expected Non-Farm reading revived hopes that the Fed would pause/delay further tightening. The US 10Y yield ultimately finished the week higher, up +12bps at 4.483%
• Oil markets stayed subdued despite renewed US - Iran tensions. Brent crude futures for August delivery fell to $72.06 per barrel, extending its June decline to roughly 22%, the steepest monthly drop since March 2020
• Gold posted its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2013, losing nearly 12% over the three months to June 30. However, sentiment improved this week: following softer-than-expected payrolls data, gold is on course for a 2.3% weekly gain, its first in five weeks

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Iran reaffirmed its intent to maintain control over shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and signalled no return to the prior status quo ahead of talks. Tehran said it would send a delegation to Doha but denied any direct meeting with US officials was planned, contradicting US statements
• By midweek Pres. Trump reported progress in indirect talks toward converting the ceasefire into a lasting peace. Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Qatar for technical discussions, with Qatar's foreign ministry citing positive movement
• Commercial shipping traffic through Hormuz rose sharply, underpinned by the US military presence. Washington is pressing Iran to accept guaranteed free passage, while Iran maintains that sovereignty over the Strait rests with Iran and Oman
• Meanwhile, the Ukraine - Russia war continues to erode Russia's domestic resilience. Following a wave of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure, Vladimir Putin acknowledged fuel shortages while maintaining that the Kremlin has the situation under control

• The US will not renew its trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, opting instead for annual reviews. USMCA remains in force for ten years but the lack of renewal opens the door to difficult negotiations over supply chains and tariffs
• The US Supreme Court ruled 5 to 4 to protect Fed independence from the White House, shielding governors from dismissal without proven cause. Governor Lisa Cook remains in her post despite Trump's attempt to remove her over unproven mortgage fraud allegations, though the ruling leaves the door open to future removal attempts
• SCOTUS also struck down Donald Trump's executive order ending birthright citizenship, ruling 6 to 3 that the 14th Amendment guarantees citizenship at birth regardless of parents' immigration status

• Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi visited India to deepen economic and security ties with Narendra Modi, with talks focused on semiconductors, critical minerals and energy as both sides look to reduce dependence on China
• China warned Japan and the Philippines against maritime boundary talks, calling them internationally unlawful, and reiterated that any Taiwan involvement would be treated as a serious provocation against the one China principle

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US payrolls for June came in at 57'000 jobs added after downward revisions to the prior two months. Short term Treasury yields fell on the jobs data, with markets now pricing the first hike no earlier than December, pushed back from October, and assigning only a 20% probability to a July move. Gold rose on the weaker jobs print as pressure eased on the Fed to hike in July, reviving rate cut speculation and pulling down both yields and the dollar
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the Sintra forum, said inflation risk has eased in recent weeks but reiterated commitment to the 2% target, stressed the Fed's independence in setting policy, and declined to signal the next move
• ECB's Christine Lagarde said Europe is becoming more resilient to economic shocks and that this month's rate hike was not a precautionary one. Later in the week, the ECB's Ulo Kaasik called a further hike a reasonable expectation, while Yannis Stournaras suggested it may be worth holding steady for a while
• US consumer confidence ticked up in June as falling petrol prices from the fragile Middle East truce offset a deteriorating view of the labour market. The Conference Board index rose to 91.2 from 90.6 in May, but below consensus of 94.4
• May JOLTS job openings rose 9'000 to 7.594mio, but hiring remained weak, pointing to a labour market in pause despite months of solid job creation
• The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a ban on foreign solar inverter imports, the devices linking solar and battery projects to the grid, over concerns China could use them to disrupt power supply

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Tesla is accelerating its supervised Full Self Driving rollout in Europe and is expected to report a 5% rise in Q2 deliveries, helped by European demand tied to higher fuel prices, stable demand in China, and US sales front-loaded ahead of the September expiry of the $7'500 federal tax credit
• BYD is set to reclaim the global lead in fully electric vehicle sales from Tesla, delivering roughly 557'090 vehicles in Q2 versus an expected 396'500 for Tesla, with total BYD sales up 5.5% in June, 43% of that from exports
• Maersk raised its 2026 guidance, with EBIT now seen between $2bn and $4bn versus $1bn to $1.5bn previously, and EBITDA between $8bn and $10bn versus $4.5bn to $7bn. Free cash flow guidance was cut to negative $1.5bn from at least negative $3bn

• Rocket Lab surged 15.93% on its agreement to acquire Iridium Communications for $54 a share, valuing Iridium at roughly $8bn and combining Rocket Lab's launch and satellite manufacturing capabilities with Iridium's low orbit network and radio frequencies
• Blackstone sold its stakes in three Northern Virginia data centres for $3.5bn, with Digital Realty Trust paying $1.2bn in cash and offering $2.3bn in shares. Separately, Blackstone QTS abandoned a Virginia data centre campus project spanning more than 800 acres after local opposition

• Alcoa agreed to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminium assets for up to $5.6bn, integrating the full value chain and reinforcing its position among the largest global producers
• Anthropic said the US Commerce Department lifted foreign access restrictions on its Fable and Mythos models, which previously required authorization. It also launched Claude Science, a beta tool aggregating more than 60 scientific databases to automate research in biology and chemistry, including protein structure prediction, alongside its own drug discovery programs

• British defence stocks advanced after the UK unveiled a nearly $20bn increase in military spending under its Defense Investment Plan, lifting annual defense expenditure to 2.7% of GDP by 2029 
• Rheinmetall said cancellation of the F126 program could cut up to 300mn EUR from 2026 revenue absent offsetting measures, while confirming expected Q2 growth of more than 60%
• Renk Group is close to a deal to acquire David Brown Defence, valued between $200mn and $250mn, with an announcement possible as soon as Friday
• Schneider Electric agreed to acquire industrial data and AI software firm Cognite from Aker ASA and other shareholders in an all cash deal valued at $3.1bn, and issued a two tranche 1.5bn EUR bond to prefinance upcoming debt maturities
• UBS has sufficient capital to meet Switzerland's proposed new requirements according to the SNB, which supports full capital coverage for foreign subsidiaries

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• 06.07: US ISM Services PMI (JUN), S&P US Services and Composite PMI (JUN final), EU PPI (MAY), EU Retail Sales (MAY)
• 08.07: FOMC Minutes
• 09.07: China Inflation Rate YoY (JUN)
• 10.07: Japan PPI (JUN), Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Chart of the Week

AI Hire Power?

New research relayed in the FT challenges the idea that AI adoption necessarily destroys jobs.

It finds that firms investing most heavily in AI are expanding their workforces faster than their peers, with employment gains becoming more pronounced as time passes after AI adoption. This trend is observed both in overall headcount and in entry-level hiring.

These findings challenge predictions of widespread AI-driven job losses. Instead, they suggest that AI can be associated with stronger hiring when firms invest sufficiently to generate meaningful productivity gains. Importantly, these effects are not immediate: they typically emerge six to twelve months after adoption and are only observed among high-intensity AI adopters.

However, the conclusion should be interpreted with caution.

First, the observed relationship between AI investment and employment growth does not necessarily imply causation. The firms investing most heavily in AI in this sample tend to be smaller, faster growing companies with the financial appetite to spend ahead of clear returns. Their hiring may therefore reflect strong underlying business momentum rather than the AI investment itself. In other words, these companies might have expanded their workforce even in the absence of AI, simply because demand for their products and services continued to rise.

Second, the broader academic literature remains far from unanimous. A few months ago, Stanford published research finding a 16% reduction in early career employment in AI-exposed jobs. Other studies reach more nuanced conclusions, highlighting different effects depending on seniority, with declines in junior employment among AI adopters while senior roles remain largely unaffected.

Source: FT 30.06.2026 and A New Look at AI's Impact on Jobs: Firm-Level Spending and Workforce Adjustment, Khazarian et al., 2026