An update on the latest news, insights, and market views shaping global wealth management and investment trends.

Weekly Snapshot

This section highlights weekly performance, notable volatility, and significant currency moves shaping investor sentiment.

• In the week Pres. Trump  wooed voters with borrowed public money, the S&P is down -0.6% and so is the Nasdaq. Europe was down -1.1%, the Nikkei was down -1.6% and mainland China was down -0.8%
• Bessent’s Treasury tripled its long-end buyback operation to $6bn for 10-20 year bonds, its largest since the program’s revival, yet yields rose regardless, with the 10-year near 4.92% and the 30-year through 5.35% for the first time since 2007, a sign markets are more focused on the deficit trajectory than on debt management operations
• Brent oil jumped from $97 at the start of the week all the way to $105.84 on Thursday as the US/Iran conflict escalated. A drop in Saudi crude output (-23% vs July) gave fresh momentum to the oil price rally, the latest indication that the deepening Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global energy supplies and fuel inflationary pressures.Markets are awaiting details of an Iran Oman agreement on managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran and Muscat seeking to formalise control of the strait (potentially including transit fees) while Washington wants a return to a freely navigable waterway. US average retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time, adding to price pressures ahead of peak demand season
• Meanwhile, European Natural  Gas, as priced by the Dutch TTF futures climbed above €82/MWh this week, the highest level since December 2022, as the Iran-US escalation continues to disrupt LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. EU storage sits around 66% full, below seasonal norms, leaving the region increasingly exposed heading into the winter heating season
• Copper prices have hit record highs on concerns over potential US tariffs, supply strains, and insatiable demand for AI data center infrastructure. 3-month contracts trading on the LME rose to $14’858.50 on Wednesday. The rise is a godsend for mining companiesn, but a headwind for AI, power, and EV makers

Geopolitical Landscape

A summary of key political and geopolitical developments during the week that may influence global markets and impact portfolio positioning.

• Germany’s political landscape shifted sharply this week, with the AfD securing 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, its strongest result yet and a step closer to becoming the first populist-right party to control a German state since World War Two. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the outcome « seismic, » as his Christian Democrats collapsed to just 17%. The AfD fell just short of an outright majority, and mainstream parties have ruled out a coalition, though a path to power could still open through the BSW, a smaller populist party aligned with the AfD on both Russia and immigration
• The Middle East conflict spilled further into the region this week, as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck four Saudi cities, including an attack on a major Saudi Aramco refinery that wounded more than 70 people. Riyadh has vowed to retaliate, while Pakistan, now bound to Saudi Arabia through a military alliance, reportedly pressed Iran to rein in its Houthi allies

• Canada will impose tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of US products, strategically hitting export heavy states like Michigan and Ohio ahead of the midterm elections. In response, the US has banned certain Canadian imports and imposed new tariffs on others. Pres.Trump also said he would seek to bar Canadian companies from selling to US government contractors
• The US accused major Chinese AI firms, including DeepSeek and Moonshot AI, of systematically extracting proprietary knowledge from US companies, and warned Silicon Valley developers to protect their work
• Separately, China increased its gold reserves by 650’000 ounces in August, the largest monthly increase since 2023 and a 22nd consecutive month of buying by the PBoC
• China also temporarily suspended approval of new battery factories amid overcapacity concerns despite strong demand growth

• Republicans convened in Dallas ahead of November’s midterms, Pres. Trump used the meeting to rally the MAGA base and spotlight candidates in tight races. He also dangled a $5’000 payout to every adult if Republicans hold Congress, a promise that would carry a $1.3 trillion price tag were it to be enacted

Macroeconomic Developments

Key macroeconomic data releases and economic indicators across major regions and individual countries, providing insight into growth trends, and the broader economic outlook.

• US PPI for final demand was up 0.4% in August, taking the annual rate to 5.4%, its fastest pace in some time. Over three quarters of the gain came from energy, up 4.2% on the month, with diesel alone jumping 24.1%; core producer prices rose a more modest 0.3%, putting the annual rate at 4.7%. CPI followed on Friday and came in hotter than expected: headline prices rose 0.3% in August, taking the year-on-year rate to 3.4%, while core CPI also rose 0.3% against consensus of 0.2%, though the annual core rate held at a comparatively contained 2.4%. Taken together, the two reports point to inflation pressure building from the producer side, particularly in energy and freight costs, with only partial pass-through to core consumer prices so far. The data lands five days ahead of the Fed’s September meeting and, if anything, argues against a rate cut in the near term

• The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, a move President Christine Lagarde described as ‘a no brainer,’ while also lifting its inflation forecasts. Markets expect further tightening, now pricing in three additional rate hikes by October 2027

• In Japan, Q2 GDP growth came in at 1.4% annualized (below the 1.8% consensus), supporting the case for a BoJ rate hike on September 18. The yen rallied broadly (against the dollar, euro, sterling, and Aussie dollar). USDJPY broke through an important support at 155, and touched a year high of 152.89. Scott Bessent helped in the rally, he declared himself ‘the house’ and claimed he held ‘asymmetric information’ on the Bank of Japan’s next moves, daring traders to bet against the yen’s strengthening

Corporate & Sector Highlights

Insights into notable developments among major global companies and sectors, including earnings results, strategic initiatives, mergers and acquisitions, regulatory developments, and trends influencing corporate performance.

• Novo Nordisk Phase 3 STEP Young trial (semaglutide in obese children aged 6 to under 12) met its primary endpoint, but two new ziltivekimab cardiovascular trials in heart failure patients were halted, another setback following an earlier failure to reduce heart attack and stroke risk
• Airbus deliveries were up 9% over the first eight months of 2026 (475 vs 434 a year earlier), broadly on track for the 870 unit annual target, A330 deliveries are down 31% while A320 family deliveries are up 11%
• Mistral AI raised 3 billion EUR at a valuation over 21 billion EUR, led by Samsung
• Inditex posted year net profit of 2.98 billion EUR on revenue of 19.76 billion EUR; it expects a roughly 1% negative currency impact in 2026, gross margin are stable, the compant will pay a 0.875 EUR per share final dividend on November 2

• Shein is down about $5bn in market cap since its Hong Kong IPO, one of the worst first weeks for a major local listing; shares are 19% below the offer price amid concerns over profitability, regulation, and competition

Looking Ahead

A forward-looking overview of the upcoming week, highlighting scheduled economic data releases, central bank events, corporate earnings, and geopolitical milestones that may shape market direction.

• September 15th: EU ZEW Survey Extectation (SEP), China Retail Sales (AUG), China Industrial Production (AUG)
• September 16th: FOMC Rate Decision, US Retail Sales (AUG)
• September 17th: EU CPI
• Setptember 18th: BOJ Rate Decision, US Leading Index (AUG), Japan CPI (AUG)

Chart of the Week

Mostly in the (sand)box, but picking the lock

AI companies periodically test their own models by trying to provoke bad behaviour in controlled settings, essentially seeing what the model will do if pushed.

The two charts below are extracted from an piece of research by Anthropic.

The first chart shows how often a model, across eight different versions, actually took a seriously harmful action during these tests: things like pretending to be someone else, secretly planting malicious code, or breaking into systems it wasn’t supposed to touch. Most versions did this in somewhere between 12% and 39% of test runs, which is already a meaningful share. Mythos 5 is the outlier at 82%, which Anthropic itself flags as a particularly bad vintage rather than a trend.

The second chart asks a different, narrower question: how often did the model try to break out of the sealed test environment it was placed in, the digital equivalent of a locked room designed to keep it contained. Here the news is better. After peaking at 70% with Sonnet 4.6, the rate falls steadily across newer releases, down to 26% for Sonnet 5, 15% for Opus 5, and 0% for Mythos 5.1.

Open AI is said to have found similar results in its models

Looking at these results, Michael Cembalest of JPM research  suggests that these safety confessions may serve strategic purposes beyond transparency: they showcase how powerful (and dangerous) frontier models are, which can be used to justify both (a) selling more expensive ‘safety-layered’ products and (b) lobbying for regulation that would raise compliance costs disproportionately on open-model competitors (like the Chinese Deepseek), entrenching the frontier labs’ market position.

Source: Anthropic Research, Michael Cembalest JPMorgan:  Libertarians at the Gate: the remarkable and disturbing last 72 hours in AI